Randomness suppress backward bifurcation in an epidemic model with limited medical resources

IF 3.4 2区数学 Q1 MATHEMATICS, APPLIED

Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation Pub Date : 2024-10-10 DOI:10.1016/j.cnsns.2024.108380

A. Lahrouz , T. Caraballo , I. Bouzalmat , A. Settati

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

This paper delves into the dynamic features of a stochastic SIR epidemic model featuring a perturbed transmission rate influenced by white noise. Our primary aim is to unravel the intricate interplay between restricted medical resources, their supply efficiency, and environmental stochasticity, shedding light on their collective impact on the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases. Our findings bring to light a notable distinction from the deterministic counterpart of the model. Specifically, under varying scenarios of medical resource availability and supply efficiency, the stochastic model exhibits a departure from bifurcation phenomena. This stands in contrast to the deterministic model, which is characterized by the presence of both backward bifurcation and Hopf bifurcation phenomena. To complement and validate our theoretical findings, numerical simulations are employed, providing concrete illustrations of the dynamical phenomena discussed in the paper. This research contributes to a nuanced understanding of the intricate interplay between stochastic environmental factors, medical resource constraints, and disease transmission dynamics, offering valuable insights for public health management and epidemic control strategies.

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在医疗资源有限的流行病模型中，随机性抑制了向后分叉

本文深入探讨了一个随机 SIR 流行病模型的动态特征，该模型具有受白噪声影响的扰动传播率。我们的主要目的是揭示受限医疗资源、其供应效率和环境随机性之间错综复杂的相互作用，阐明它们对传染病传播动态的共同影响。我们的研究结果揭示了该模型与确定性模型的显著区别。具体来说，在医疗资源可用性和供应效率不同的情况下，随机模型表现出偏离分叉现象。这与确定性模型形成鲜明对比，后者的特点是同时存在后向分岔和霍普夫分岔现象。为了补充和验证我们的理论发现，我们采用了数值模拟，对论文中讨论的动力学现象进行了具体说明。这项研究有助于深入理解随机环境因素、医疗资源限制和疾病传播动态之间错综复杂的相互作用，为公共卫生管理和流行病控制策略提供了宝贵的见解。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation MATHEMATICS, APPLIED-MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS

CiteScore

6.80

自引率

7.70%

发文量

378

审稿时长

78 days

期刊介绍： The journal publishes original research findings on experimental observation, mathematical modeling, theoretical analysis and numerical simulation, for more accurate description, better prediction or novel application, of nonlinear phenomena in science and engineering. It offers a venue for researchers to make rapid exchange of ideas and techniques in nonlinear science and complexity. The submission of manuscripts with cross-disciplinary approaches in nonlinear science and complexity is particularly encouraged. Topics of interest: Nonlinear differential or delay equations, Lie group analysis and asymptotic methods, Discontinuous systems, Fractals, Fractional calculus and dynamics, Nonlinear effects in quantum mechanics, Nonlinear stochastic processes, Experimental nonlinear science, Time-series and signal analysis, Computational methods and simulations in nonlinear science and engineering, Control of dynamical systems, Synchronization, Lyapunov analysis, High-dimensional chaos and turbulence, Chaos in Hamiltonian systems, Integrable systems and solitons, Collective behavior in many-body systems, Biological physics and networks, Nonlinear mechanical systems, Complex systems and complexity. No length limitation for contributions is set, but only concisely written manuscripts are published. Brief papers are published on the basis of Rapid Communications. Discussions of previously published papers are welcome.