{"title":"Global risk dynamics of Borrelia miyamotoi in the context of climate change","authors":"Tian Tang, Hong-Han Ge, Tian Ma, Meng-meng Hao, Shuai Chen, Chen-Long Lv, Yun-Bo Qiu, Yan-He Wang, Yao Tian, Jin-Jin Chen, Shuai Yuan, Qian Wang, Dong Jiang, Fang-Yu Ding, Wei Liu, Li-Qun Fang","doi":"10.1111/1462-2920.70000","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>The impact of <i>Borrelia miyamotoi</i> on human health, facilitated by the expanding geographical distribution and increasing population of <i>Ixodes</i> ticks, remains obscure in the context of global climate change. We employed multiple models to evaluate the effect of global climate change on the risk of <i>B. miyamotoi</i> worldwide across various scenarios. The habitat suitability index of four primary vector tick species for <i>B. miyamotoi</i>, including <i>Ixodes persulcatus</i>, <i>Ixodes ricinus, Ixodes pacificus</i> and <i>Ixodes scapularis</i>, was projected using a boosted regression tree model, considering multiple shared socio-economic pathway scenarios over various time periods. The modelling analysis reveals that, apart from <i>I. scapularis</i>, future global warming will result in a northward shift in the other three vector tick species and a gradual reduction in suitable habitats. Random forest models indicate consistent changes in <i>B. miyamotoi</i> and its primary tick species, with potential risk areas shrinking and shifting northward, particularly in the eastern USA, northeastern and northern Europe and northeast Asia. These findings highlight the urgent need for enhanced active surveillance of <i>B. miyamotoi</i> infection in primary vector tick species across projected potential risk areas. The effect of climate change on <i>B. miyamotoi</i> distribution might have significant implications for public health decision-making regarding tick-borne pathogens.</p>","PeriodicalId":11898,"journal":{"name":"Environmental microbiology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.3000,"publicationDate":"2024-10-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1462-2920.70000","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Environmental microbiology","FirstCategoryId":"99","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1462-2920.70000","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"生物学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"MICROBIOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
The impact of Borrelia miyamotoi on human health, facilitated by the expanding geographical distribution and increasing population of Ixodes ticks, remains obscure in the context of global climate change. We employed multiple models to evaluate the effect of global climate change on the risk of B. miyamotoi worldwide across various scenarios. The habitat suitability index of four primary vector tick species for B. miyamotoi, including Ixodes persulcatus, Ixodes ricinus, Ixodes pacificus and Ixodes scapularis, was projected using a boosted regression tree model, considering multiple shared socio-economic pathway scenarios over various time periods. The modelling analysis reveals that, apart from I. scapularis, future global warming will result in a northward shift in the other three vector tick species and a gradual reduction in suitable habitats. Random forest models indicate consistent changes in B. miyamotoi and its primary tick species, with potential risk areas shrinking and shifting northward, particularly in the eastern USA, northeastern and northern Europe and northeast Asia. These findings highlight the urgent need for enhanced active surveillance of B. miyamotoi infection in primary vector tick species across projected potential risk areas. The effect of climate change on B. miyamotoi distribution might have significant implications for public health decision-making regarding tick-borne pathogens.
期刊介绍:
Environmental Microbiology provides a high profile vehicle for publication of the most innovative, original and rigorous research in the field. The scope of the Journal encompasses the diversity of current research on microbial processes in the environment, microbial communities, interactions and evolution and includes, but is not limited to, the following:
the structure, activities and communal behaviour of microbial communities
microbial community genetics and evolutionary processes
microbial symbioses, microbial interactions and interactions with plants, animals and abiotic factors
microbes in the tree of life, microbial diversification and evolution
population biology and clonal structure
microbial metabolic and structural diversity
microbial physiology, growth and survival
microbes and surfaces, adhesion and biofouling
responses to environmental signals and stress factors
modelling and theory development
pollution microbiology
extremophiles and life in extreme and unusual little-explored habitats
element cycles and biogeochemical processes, primary and secondary production
microbes in a changing world, microbially-influenced global changes
evolution and diversity of archaeal and bacterial viruses
new technological developments in microbial ecology and evolution, in particular for the study of activities of microbial communities, non-culturable microorganisms and emerging pathogens