Impact of climate change on drought in the Wadi Lakhdar watershed, North Algeria

Abstract

In Algeria, one of the most alarming effects of climate change is drought. These periods of low rainfall have significant social and environmental implications, prompting investigations into management strategies, associated risks, and resulting crises. This study focuses on the Wadi Lakhdar watershed, a semi-arid region in northwestern Algeria, aiming to demonstrate the historical presence of drought and its impact on the environment and agriculture. To quantify long-term meteorological droughts and identify wet and dry periods from 1999 to 2021, we will utilize three drought indices: the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI-12 months), the Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI-12 months), and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI-12 months). These indices are currently valuable tools for implementing various countermeasures, including drought early warning systems, monitoring, and contingency planning. Our analysis employing SPI, SPEI, and PDSI data will reveal distinct value ranges for wet years (1.01 to 2 for SPI, 0.64 to 1.28 for SPEI, and 1.35 to 2.68 for PDSI) and extremely dry years (− 1.07 to − 2.1 for SPI, − 0.68 to − 1.34 for SPEI, and − 1.43 to − 2.81 for PDSI). The wettest years were 2009, 2010, and 2013, while the driest years occurred in 2000, 2005, 2006, and 2007. Understanding drought characteristics is crucial for effective drought management. Drought indices provide a practical way to convert vast amounts of data into quantitative information for applications such as drought forecasting, communication of drought severity levels, and raising public awareness about the potential consequences of drought. This study’s social benefit lies in raising public awareness of these implications and anticipated consequences.