Runtime integration of machine learning and simulation for business processes: Time and decision mining predictions

Abstract

Recent research in Computer Science has investigated the use of Deep Learning (DL) techniques to complement outcomes or decisions within a Discrete Event Simulation (DES) model. The main idea of this combination is to maintain a white box simulation model complement it with information provided by DL models to overcome the unrealistic or oversimplified assumptions of traditional DESs. State-of-the-art techniques in BPM combine Deep Learning and Discrete Event Simulation in a post-integration fashion: first an entire simulation is performed, and then a DL model is used to add waiting times and processing times to the events produced by the simulation model.

In this paper, we aim at taking a step further by introducing Rims (Runtime Integration of Machine Learning and Simulation). Instead of complementing the outcome of a complete simulation with the results of predictions a posteriori, Rims provides a tight integration of the predictions of the DL model at runtime during the simulation. This runtime-integration enables us to fully exploit the specific predictions while respecting simulation execution, thus enhancing the performance of the overall system both w.r.t. the single techniques (Business Process Simulation and DL) separately and the post-integration approach. In particular, the runtime integration ensures the accuracy of intercase features for time prediction, such as the number of ongoing traces at a given time, by calculating them during directly the simulation, where all traces are executed in parallel. Additionally, it allows for the incorporation of online queue information in the DL model and enables the integration of other predictive models into the simulator to enhance decision point management within the process model. These enhancements improve the performance of Rims in accurately simulating the real process in terms of control flow, as well as in terms of time and congestion dimensions. Especially in process scenarios with significant congestion – when a limited availability of resources leads to significant event queues for their allocation – the ability of Rims to use queue features to predict waiting times allows it to surpass the state-of-the-art. We evaluated our approach with real-world and synthetic event logs, using various metrics to assess the simulation model’s quality in terms of control-flow, time, and congestion dimensions.