Frequency and Spatial Variability of European Record Floods

Abstract

Regional envelope curves (RECs) have been used to characterize the flooding potential of regions worldwide. However, a comprehensive assessment for Europe is still missing. In this study we use the largest European flood database to quantify the magnitude of record floods, their dependence on catchment size, and the amount of available independent information, which is needed for estimatinig the REC's exceedance probability. We propose a framework for estimating REC parameters across large areas, consisting in partitioning the domain according to the observation density and estimating the REC slope through quantile regression. The results show that the REC parameters vary substantially across Europe. The envelope unit flood associated with a catchment area of 1,000 km² varies between 0.1 and 6 m³s⁻¹ km⁻² and is highest in Mediterranean and Alpine areas and lowest in central-eastern Europe. The slope of the envelope varies between 0 and −1 and is larger in Southern Europe than in Northern Europe. These differences are explained by steeper landscape in mountaineous regions and localized short duration storms producing large floods in small catchments in the Mediterranean, whose intensities are larger than in other parts of Europe. Based on the framework of probabilistic envelope curves we show that, despite the uneven observation density, the obtained RECs are associated with comparable exceedance probabilities.