Deciphering the impact of cascade reservoirs on nitrogen transport and nitrate transformation: Insights from multiple isotope analysis and machine learning

Abstract

Construction of cascade reservoirs has altered nutrient dynamics and biogeochemical cycles, thereby influencing the composition and productivity of river ecosystems. The Lancang River (LCR), characterized by its cascade reservoir system, presents uncertainties in nitrogen transport and nitrate transformation mechanisms. Herein, we conducted monthly monitoring of hydrochemistry and multiple stable isotopes (δ¹⁵N-NO₃^-, δ¹⁸O-NO₃^-, δ¹⁸O-H₂O, δD-H₂O) throughout 2019 in both the natural river reach (NRR) and cascade reservoirs reach (CRR) of the LCR. Through the monthly detection of nitrogen forms and runoff in the import (M2) and export (M9) section, the average annual retention ratios for Total nitrogen (TN), Nitrate nitrogen (NO₃^--N), Particulate Nitrogen (PN) and Ammonium Nitrogen (NH₄⁺-N) were about -35%, -53%, 48% and -65%, respectively. The retention rates were positively correlated with hydraulic retention time and negatively correlated with reservoir age, especially in the flood season. Compared to the NRR, the reservoir had significantly affected the nitrogen transport characteristics, especially for the large reservoirs (like Xiaowan and Nuozhadu), which enhanced phytoplankton uptake of NO₃^--N to form PN capabilities in the lentic environment and subsequently to precipitate or intercept it at the reservoir. This led to the overall decreasing trend of TN and PN concentrations along the CRR. The Bayesian stable isotope model quantified NO₃^--N sources from the NRR to the CRR. During this transition, soil nitrogen (SN) ratios decreased from 69.3% to 61.8%, while Manure & sewage (M&S) increased from 24.0% to 31.3%. Anthropogenic and natural factors, including urban sewage discharge, population density, and precipitation, were selected as key predictor variables. The eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model exhibited superior predictive performance for NO₃^--N concentrations, achieving an R² of 0.70. These findings deepen our understanding of the impact of reservoirs on river ecology.