A modified matrix model captures the population dynamics for the primary vector of Lyme disease in North America

IF 2.7 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY
Ecosphere Pub Date : 2024-10-15 DOI:10.1002/ecs2.70022
John R. Foster, Shannon L. LaDeau, Kelly Oggenfuss, Richard S. Ostfeld, Michael C. Dietze
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Lyme disease, the most prevalent tick-borne disease in North America, is caused by the bacterium Borrelia burgdorferi, and in the eastern and central United States, it is spread to humans by the black-legged tick (Ixodes scapularis). Due to the complex, multiyear and multihost life cycle of this species, a matrix modeling approach is needed to effectively estimate subseasonal, multistage survival and transition dynamics in order to better understand and predict when population growth is high. Of the three questing tick life stages (larvae, nymphs, and adults), nymphs are most often associated with transmitting the bacteria to humans, and previous work suggests a mix of abiotic and biotic drivers are associated with nymph abundance. However, understanding tick population growth requires understanding mortality and transition probabilities for each stage and each stage may be individually and uniquely impacted by climate and host availability. A larval tick, for example, may experience warming temperatures differently than nymph or adults, because they are present on the landscape at different times. Here, we describe and validate a model that accounts for field sampling design and evaluates abiotic (temperature, relative humidity, precipitation) and biotic (host abundance) drivers of variation in tick population growth. To account for the drivers of subseasonal and interannual variability in demography, phenology, and population density, we built stage-structured population models that account for variability in meteorology and host population abundance throughout the full tick lifecycle. Our model is fit and validated with 11 years of tick and host data from the northeastern United States. In this context, we found that a four-stage model that includes unique transitions to and from a dormant, overwintering nymph state outperforms a model that only includes the three questing stages, and that incorporating the abundance of the predominant host species, Peromyscus leucopus, and weather variables improved predictions and model fit. Additionally, the model accurately predicted all three questing stages at sites different than where they were calibrated, showing that this model structure is generally transferable. Overall, this model lays a foundation for the real-time iterative forecasting of tick populations needed to effectively protect public health.

Abstract Image

改良矩阵模型捕捉北美莱姆病主要病媒的种群动态
莱姆病是北美最流行的蜱媒疾病,由鲍氏菌(Borrelia burgdorferi)引起,在美国东部和中部,它通过黑腿蜱(Ixodes scapularis)传播给人类。由于该物种的生命周期复杂、多年且多寄主,因此需要一种矩阵建模方法来有效估算亚季节、多阶段的生存和过渡动态,以便更好地了解和预测种群高增长的时间。在蜱虫的三个生命阶段(幼虫、若虫和成虫)中,若虫最常将细菌传播给人类,以前的工作表明,非生物和生物驱动因素的组合与若虫的数量有关。然而,要了解蜱虫种群的增长情况,就必须了解每个阶段的死亡率和过渡概率,而且每个阶段都可能受到气候和宿主可用性的单独和独特影响。例如,蜱幼虫与若虫或成虫对气温变暖的感受可能不同,因为它们出现在地表的时间不同。在此,我们描述并验证了一个模型,该模型考虑了实地采样设计,并评估了蜱种群增长变化的非生物因素(温度、相对湿度、降水)和生物因素(宿主丰度)。为了解释人口统计、物候学和种群密度的亚季节和年际变化的驱动因素,我们建立了阶段性结构的种群模型,以解释整个蜱生命周期中气象和宿主种群丰度的变化。我们的模型通过美国东北部 11 年的蜱虫和宿主数据进行了拟合和验证。在这种情况下,我们发现,一个包含了从休眠到越冬若虫状态的独特过渡的四阶段模型优于一个只包含三个觅食阶段的模型,而且包含了主要宿主物种白头蜱的丰度和天气变量也提高了预测结果和模型的拟合度。此外,该模型还能准确预测与标定地点不同地点的所有三个觅食阶段,这表明该模型结构具有普遍的可移植性。总之,该模型为有效保护公众健康所需的蜱虫种群实时迭代预测奠定了基础。
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来源期刊
Ecosphere
Ecosphere ECOLOGY-
CiteScore
4.70
自引率
3.70%
发文量
378
审稿时长
15 weeks
期刊介绍: The scope of Ecosphere is as broad as the science of ecology itself. The journal welcomes submissions from all sub-disciplines of ecological science, as well as interdisciplinary studies relating to ecology. The journal''s goal is to provide a rapid-publication, online-only, open-access alternative to ESA''s other journals, while maintaining the rigorous standards of peer review for which ESA publications are renowned.
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