Forecasting the costs of battery electric buses: A system dynamics model perspective

IF 4.1 2区工程技术 Q2 BUSINESS

Research in Transportation Business and Management Pub Date : 2024-10-14 DOI:10.1016/j.rtbm.2024.101223

Alyson L.P. Rodrigues , Peter Wells , Liana Cipcigan , Sônia Regina da Cal Seixas

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Abstract

The high investment costs of battery electric buses (BEBs), influenced directly by battery and infrastructure costs, pose a challenge that limits their large-scale adoption. Therefore, the success of this socio-technical transition requires economic feasibility analyses to identify the optimum adoption pathway. This study presents a system dynamics model (SDM) covering adoption scenarios from 2023 to 2030. The development of the model was established through interdisciplinary workshops conducted with local researchers from Brazil for collaborative conceptualization and modeling. We provide details of the costs involved, considering purchase, operation, maintenance, and infrastructure costs. Dynamic simulations show the estimated Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) for overnight and opportunity charging over the years, allowing a better understanding of the trade-off between large and small batteries for purchasing decisions and selecting charging infrastructure to reduce total costs. Our results indicate potential transport management concerning long-term cost planning associated with various battery sizes and charging strategies.

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预测电池电动公交车的成本：系统动力学模型视角

电池电动公交车（BEBs）的投资成本高昂，直接受到电池和基础设施成本的影响，是限制其大规模应用的一个挑战。因此，这一社会技术转型的成功需要经济可行性分析，以确定最佳的采用途径。本研究提出了一个系统动力学模型（SDM），涵盖了 2023 年至 2030 年的采用情景。该模型的开发是通过与巴西当地研究人员开展跨学科研讨会，共同构思和建模而完成的。我们提供了所涉及成本的详细信息，包括购买、运行、维护和基础设施成本。动态模拟显示了多年来隔夜充电和机会充电的总拥有成本（TCO）估算，使人们能够更好地理解大型和小型电池之间的权衡，从而做出购买决策和选择充电基础设施，降低总成本。我们的研究结果表明了与各种电池尺寸和充电策略相关的长期成本规划方面的潜在运输管理。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Research in Transportation Business and Management Multiple-

CiteScore

7.10

自引率

8.30%

发文量

175

期刊介绍： Research in Transportation Business & Management (RTBM) will publish research on international aspects of transport management such as business strategy, communication, sustainability, finance, human resource management, law, logistics, marketing, franchising, privatisation and commercialisation. Research in Transportation Business & Management welcomes proposals for themed volumes from scholars in management, in relation to all modes of transport. Issues should be cross-disciplinary for one mode or single-disciplinary for all modes. We are keen to receive proposals that combine and integrate theories and concepts that are taken from or can be traced to origins in different disciplines or lessons learned from different modes and approaches to the topic. By facilitating the development of interdisciplinary or intermodal concepts, theories and ideas, and by synthesizing these for the journal''s audience, we seek to contribute to both scholarly advancement of knowledge and the state of managerial practice. Potential volume themes include: -Sustainability and Transportation Management- Transport Management and the Reduction of Transport''s Carbon Footprint- Marketing Transport/Branding Transportation- Benchmarking, Performance Measurement and Best Practices in Transport Operations- Franchising, Concessions and Alternate Governance Mechanisms for Transport Organisations- Logistics and the Integration of Transportation into Freight Supply Chains- Risk Management (or Asset Management or Transportation Finance or ...): Lessons from Multiple Modes- Engaging the Stakeholder in Transportation Governance- Reliability in the Freight Sector