Modeling renewable energy market behavior and climate risk moderation for achieving the sustainable development goal 7

Abstract

The drivers of renewable energy production significantly impact the behavior of the renewable energy market, particularly through their vulnerability to climatic adversity. Physical and transition hazards associated with climate change threaten renewable energy-producing facilities. Current U.S. frameworks addressing climate resilience may require revision, as evidenced by the failure to achieve Goal 7 of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG 7). This study focuses on integrating climate risk factors into strategies to fully realize the market potential for renewable energy. From August 1, 2014, to July 6, 2023, we controlled for weather hazard variables to examine the impact of renewable energy return sources on the market values of renewable energy. Using multiple quantile-on-quantile extrapolation and cross-measure association, we found that climate risk elements, such as natural catastrophes (physical hazards) and uncertainties in climate policy (transition hazards), reduce the impact of returns on market drivers for renewable energy. The proposed climate resilience-oriented strategy framework aims to advance the achievement of SDG 7 b y internalizing physical and transition climate risk elements.