Decarbonising Swedish maritime transport: Scenario analyses of climate policy instruments

IF 7.3 1区工程技术 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Transportation Research Part D-transport and Environment Pub Date : 2024-10-14 DOI:10.1016/j.trd.2024.104457

Lina Trosvik , Selma Brynolf

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Abstract

To analyse the future transition towards fossil-free fuels in the Swedish maritime transport sector, this study develops a scenario modelling tool to assess implications of policy instruments, such as the European Union Emissions Trading System and the FuelEU Maritime regulation. Using data for individual ships and their operational patterns, the model estimates the lowest-cost fuel option for shipowners in different scenarios and calculates the resulting annual fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. Scenario analyses indicate that policy instruments have the potential to affect shipowners’ investment choices, but that relatively strong price signals are required for significant effects to arise. Battery-electric propulsion is most common for passenger ferries, ropax ships, and small passenger cruises, while fishing vessels and service ships typically choose conventional fuels across all scenarios. Choices are found to vary between ship segments and scenarios, emphasising the need to consider ship-specific data when analysing effects of policy instruments.

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瑞典海运去碳化：气候政策工具的情景分析

为了分析瑞典海运业未来向无化石燃料过渡的情况，本研究开发了一种情景建模工具，用于评估欧盟排放交易体系和 FuelEU Maritime 法规等政策工具的影响。该模型利用单艘船舶及其运营模式的数据，估算了不同情景下船东的最低成本燃料选择，并计算了由此产生的年燃料消耗量和温室气体排放量。情景分析表明，政策工具有可能影响船东的投资选择，但需要相对较强的价格信号才能产生显著效果。电池电力推进在客渡船、滚装船和小型客轮中最为常见，而渔船和服务船在所有情景中通常选择传统燃料。不同船型和不同情景下的选择各不相同，这强调了在分析政策工具的效果时需要考虑船舶的具体数据。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Transportation Research Part D-transport and Environment 工程技术-运输科技

CiteScore

14.40

自引率

9.20%

发文量

314

审稿时长

39 days

期刊介绍： Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment focuses on original research exploring the environmental impacts of transportation, policy responses to these impacts, and their implications for transportation system design, planning, and management. The journal comprehensively covers the interaction between transportation and the environment, ranging from local effects on specific geographical areas to global implications such as natural resource depletion and atmospheric pollution. We welcome research papers across all transportation modes, including maritime, air, and land transportation, assessing their environmental impacts broadly. Papers addressing both mobile aspects and transportation infrastructure are considered. The journal prioritizes empirical findings and policy responses of regulatory, planning, technical, or fiscal nature. Articles are policy-driven, accessible, and applicable to readers from diverse disciplines, emphasizing relevance and practicality. We encourage interdisciplinary submissions and welcome contributions from economically developing and advanced countries alike, reflecting our international orientation.