From rising temperature to rising health concerns: A study of climate change effects in Paraguay

IF 1.7 Q2 GEOGRAPHY
Paulina Schulz-Antipa , Christian M. García-Witulski , Mariana Conte Grand , Mariano J. Rabassa
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Abstract

Projected temperature increases in Paraguay are expected to significantly impact public health. This study assesses the current health burden from adverse temperature conditions using mortality and morbidity data, and estimates future consequences under various climate models and emissions scenarios. According to the Global Burden of Disease, non-optimal temperatures caused approximately 640 deaths in Paraguay in 2019, 1.6% of total mortality. Cardiovascular diseases have the highest mortality rates, while infectious diseases are most impacted by heat exposure. Using panel data from 2015 to 2019, our econometric model suggests that non-optimal temperatures result in approximately 2,013 hospitalizations and 157,300 doctor visits annually within the public health system, representing 0.94% of hospitalizations and 1.97% of doctor visits. Our morbidity analysis reveals that seniors are more affected by higher-than-optimal temperatures, with hospitalizations among men and doctor visits for both genders increasing during high temperatures. To project future health burdens, we employ a comparative risk assessment for mortality estimation and applied our econometric model for morbidity evaluation. Comparing 2020 to 2050, we project an average increase in the mortality rate attributable to non-optimal temperatures between 1.5% and 21.6%, depending on the climate scenario. Hospitalizations are expected to double and doctor visits to triple during this period under the worst climate projections.
从气温升高到健康问题加剧:巴拉圭气候变化影响研究
预计巴拉圭气温的升高将对公众健康产生重大影响。本研究利用死亡率和发病率数据评估了当前不利气温条件造成的健康负担,并根据各种气候模型和排放情景估算了未来的后果。根据 "全球疾病负担",2019 年,非最佳气温导致巴拉圭约 640 人死亡,占总死亡率的 1.6%。心血管疾病的死亡率最高,而传染病受高温暴露的影响最大。利用 2015 年至 2019 年的面板数据,我们的计量经济学模型表明,非最佳气温每年在公共卫生系统内导致约 2 013 人住院和 15.73 万人次就医,分别占住院和就医人数的 0.94% 和 1.97%。我们的发病率分析表明,气温高于最适宜温度对老年人的影响更大,高温期间男性住院人数和男女就诊人数都会增加。为了预测未来的健康负担,我们采用比较风险评估来估算死亡率,并应用计量经济学模型来评估发病率。将 2020 年与 2050 年进行比较,我们预测非最佳气温导致的死亡率平均增幅在 1.5% 到 21.6% 之间,具体取决于气候情景。根据最糟糕的气候预测,在此期间,住院人数预计将增加一倍,就诊人数将增加两倍。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
3.60
自引率
5.90%
发文量
92
期刊介绍: Regional Science Policy & Practice (RSPP) is the official policy and practitioner orientated journal of the Regional Science Association International. It is an international journal that publishes high quality papers in applied regional science that explore policy and practice issues in regional and local development. It welcomes papers from a range of academic disciplines and practitioners including planning, public policy, geography, economics and environmental science and related fields. Papers should address the interface between academic debates and policy development and application. RSPP provides an opportunity for academics and policy makers to develop a dialogue to identify and explore many of the challenges facing local and regional economies.
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