Climatic Oscillations and Dynastic Trends: A Multiproxy analysis of the past two millennia in the Indian Subcontinent

Abstract

The study examines centennial-scale climatic oscillations over the past two millennia in the monsoon-dominated Indian subcontinent by multiproxy analysis of pollen along with stable carbon isotope, total organic carbon, magnetic susceptibility, and grain size from a 274 cm deep sediment profile in Sarsapukhra Lake, Varanasi, in the Central Ganga Plain (CGP) to portray vegetation changes and their impact on rise and fall of dominant dynasties. Between ∼1800 to 1600 cal yr BP, the coarser silty sand with few Poaceae and Asteraceae pollen with other proxy data, indicate that the region experienced a strong Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM). Subsequently, from ∼1600 to 1350 cal yr BP, presence of mixed moist deciduous taxa such as Shorea robusta, Madhuca indica, Rubiaceae, Morus alba, Syzygium, and Moraceae indicate a moderate ISM while between 1350 to 1200 cal yr BP, the dominance of dry deciduous taxa viz. Acacia sp., Bombax ceiba, Holoptelea, Rutaceae, Madhuca indica, Mangifera indica etc. suggested weak ISM conditions. A pulsative ameliorating trend from ∼1200 to 1030 cal yr BP showed the dominance of deciduous taxa such as Holoptelea, Rutaceae, Ziziphus, Rubiaceae, Maytenus and Acanthaceae etc. indicating warm and moist climatic conditions, followed by a weak ISM until ∼900 cal yr BP and improved ISM until 620 cal yr BP. Subsequently, an improving trend in the ISM from ∼620 to 450 cal yr BP was observed, with increased dominance of wetland taxa, followed by acute dry climate beyond ∼450 cal yr BP indicating poor ISM conditions.

Additionally, the alternating warm and cold episodes had a direct impact on vegetation, forcing human civilizations to migrate from their original locations and contributing to the downfall of prominent dynasties. Furthermore, this study lays the foundation for future research into issues related to vegetation change, the amount of ISM shift, and human culture−climate relationship.