Vulnerability simulation and evaluation of urban metro operation system: A hybrid structural equation model with system dynamics approach

IF 4.2 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction Pub Date : 2024-10-09 DOI:10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104889

Zongbao Feng , Hongyu Chen , Yang Liu

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

To effectively identify the influence factors of urban metro operation system (UMOS) vulnerability and research the dynamic evolution process of system vulnerability, ensuring the long-term safety of UMOS, a hybrid method integrating structural equation model (SEM) and system dynamic (SD) is proposed to evaluate the UMOS vulnerability. The vulnerability evaluation indexes system of UMOS is established by questionnaire design, which includes four dimensions of personnel, equipment, management and environment. The effectiveness of the method is verified by taking Wuhan metro system in China as an example. The results indicate that (1) The influence of personnel, equipment, management and environment factors on UMOS is 30.2 %, 27.6 %, 21.6 % and 20.6 %, respectively. (2) The passenger flow level and emergency rescue system level have the greatest influence on the vulnerability of UMOS via sensitivity analysis. (3) Extreme weather conditions have the greatest impact on the environment sub-system vulnerability, which in turn affects the UMOS. Hence, the proposed method herein can simulate the long-term vulnerability of the entire UMOS and formulate corresponding improvement measures, thereby achieving sustainable transportation development.

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城市地铁运营系统的脆弱性模拟与评估：采用系统动力学方法的混合结构方程模型

为有效识别城市地铁运营系统（UMOS）脆弱性的影响因素，研究系统脆弱性的动态演化过程，确保城市地铁运营系统的长期安全，提出了结构方程模型（SEM）与系统动态（SD）相结合的混合方法来评价城市地铁运营系统的脆弱性。通过问卷设计建立了 UMOS 的脆弱性评价指标体系，包括人员、设备、管理和环境四个维度。以中国武汉地铁系统为例，验证了该方法的有效性。结果表明：（1）人员、设备、管理和环境因素对 UMOS 的影响分别为 30.2%、27.6%、21.6% 和 20.6%。(2) 通过敏感性分析，客流水平和应急救援系统水平对 UMOS 脆弱性的影响最大。(3) 极端天气条件对环境子系统脆弱性的影响最大，进而影响 UMOS。因此，本文提出的方法可以模拟整个 UMOS 的长期脆弱性，并制定相应的改进措施，从而实现交通的可持续发展。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

International journal of disaster risk reduction GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARYMETEOROLOGY-METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

CiteScore

8.70

自引率

18.00%

发文量

688

审稿时长

79 days

期刊介绍： The International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction (IJDRR) is the journal for researchers, policymakers and practitioners across diverse disciplines: earth sciences and their implications; environmental sciences; engineering; urban studies; geography; and the social sciences. IJDRR publishes fundamental and applied research, critical reviews, policy papers and case studies with a particular focus on multi-disciplinary research that aims to reduce the impact of natural, technological, social and intentional disasters. IJDRR stimulates exchange of ideas and knowledge transfer on disaster research, mitigation, adaptation, prevention and risk reduction at all geographical scales: local, national and international. Key topics:- -multifaceted disaster and cascading disasters -the development of disaster risk reduction strategies and techniques -discussion and development of effective warning and educational systems for risk management at all levels -disasters associated with climate change -vulnerability analysis and vulnerability trends -emerging risks -resilience against disasters. The journal particularly encourages papers that approach risk from a multi-disciplinary perspective.