Effect of heatwaves on mortality of Alzheimer's disease and other dementias among elderly aged 60 years and above in China, 2013–2020: a population-based study

Abstract

Background

China has the largest number of dementia patients in the world, posing a significant health and economic burden. Alzheimer's disease (AD) and other dementia patients face a higher risk of mortality during heatwaves, but relevant studies on this topic have been limited so far.

Methods

The study extracted data from the China Cause of Death Reporting System (CDRS) on deaths of AD and other dementia patients aged 60 years and above between 2013 and 2020. Using an individual-level, time-stratified, and case-crossover study design, the effects of heatwaves across nine scenarios on dementia mortality were quantified by conditional logistic regression combined with distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM). Additionally, the attributable fractions (AFs) of deaths due to heatwaves were calculated.

Findings

A total of 399,036 death cases were reported caused by AD and other dementias during the study period. It was found that heatwaves significantly increased the risk of death among people with AD and other dementias. As the intensities and durations of the heatwaves increased, the lag0-7 cumulative odds ratios (CORs) of mortality increased progressively from 1.140 (95% CI: 1.118, 1.163) under the mildest heatwave to 1.459 (95% CI: 1.403, 1.518) under the most severe one, across nine heatwave scenarios examined. Additionally, under specific heatwave scenarios, sex and regions modified the mortality risk, but no significant age differences were observed. The AFs of AD and other dementia mortality due to milder heatwaves were lower compared to more severe heatwaves, ranging from 12.281% (95% CI: 10.555%, 14.015%) to 31.460% (95% CI: 28.724%, 34.124%).

Interpretation

The study provided critical insights into the substantial increase in heatwave-related mortality among AD and other dementia patients during and after heatwave events. The results from our quantitative analyses will provide needed scientific evidence for policymakers and practitioners to develop relevant policies and guidelines to protect the health and well-beings of vulnerable populations in future in the context of both seasonal changes and long-term climate change.

Funding

This work was supported by the Project of Prevention and Intervention on Major Diseases for Elderly in China, NCNCD [00240201307], the National Key Research and Development Program of China [2022YFC2602301, 2023YFC2308703] and the Science and Technology Fundamental Resources Investigation Program of China [2017FY101201].