C.P. Summerhayes , J. Zalasiewicz , M.J. Head , J. Syvitski , A.D. Barnosky , A. Cearreta , B. Fiałkiewicz-Kozieł , J. Grinevald , R. Leinfelder , F.M.G. McCarthy , J.R. McNeill , Y. Saito , M. Wagreich , C.N. Waters , M. Williams , J. Zinke
{"title":"The future extent of the Anthropocene epoch: A synthesis","authors":"C.P. Summerhayes , J. Zalasiewicz , M.J. Head , J. Syvitski , A.D. Barnosky , A. Cearreta , B. Fiałkiewicz-Kozieł , J. Grinevald , R. Leinfelder , F.M.G. McCarthy , J.R. McNeill , Y. Saito , M. Wagreich , C.N. Waters , M. Williams , J. Zinke","doi":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2024.104568","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We synthesize research from complementary scientific fields to address the likely future extent and duration of the proposed Anthropocene epoch. Intensification of human-forced climate change began from about 1970 onwards with steepening increases in greenhouse gases, ocean acidification, global temperature and sea level, along with ice loss. The resulting distinction between relatively stable Holocene climatic conditions and those of the proposed Anthropocene epoch is substantial, with many aspects irreversible. The still-rising trajectory of greenhouse gas emissions is leading to yet greater and more permanent divergence of the Anthropocene from the Holocene Earth System. We focus here on the effects of the ensuing climate transformation and its impact on the likely duration of this novel state of the Earth System.</div><div>Given the magnitude and rapid rise of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO<sub>2</sub>), its long lifetime in the atmosphere, and the present disequilibrium in Earth's energy budget (expressed as the Earth's Energy Imbalance, or EEI), both temperatures and sea level must continue to rise – even with carbon emissions lowered to net zero (where anthropogenic CO<sub>2</sub> emissions = anthropogenic CO<sub>2</sub> removals) – until the energy budget balance is eventually restored. Even if net zero were achieved immediately, elevated global temperatures would persist for at least several tens of millennia, with expected levels of warmth by the end of this century not seen since the early Late Pliocene. Interglacial conditions are likely to persist for at least 50,000 years under already-accumulated CO<sub>2</sub> emissions and Earth's low eccentricity orbit. Continued increases in greenhouse gas emissions are likely to extend that persistence to around 500,000 years, suppressing the pronounced expression of Milankovitch cyclicity typical of the later Pleistocene Epoch. This major perturbation alone is sufficient to justify the Anthropocene as terminating the Holocene Epoch. The wider and mostly irreversible effects of climate change, not least in amplifying reconfiguration of the biosphere, emphasize the scale of this departure from Holocene conditions, justifying the establishment of a new epoch.</div><div>Given such perspectives, the Anthropocene epoch represents what will become a lasting and substantial change in the Earth System. It is the Holocene Epoch at only 11,700 years duration that will appear as the ‘blip’ in the Geological Time Scale, a brief interval when complex, settled human societies co-existed with, but did not overwhelm, a stable Earth System.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":55089,"journal":{"name":"Global and Planetary Change","volume":"242 ","pages":"Article 104568"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0000,"publicationDate":"2024-09-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Global and Planetary Change","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921818124002157","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
We synthesize research from complementary scientific fields to address the likely future extent and duration of the proposed Anthropocene epoch. Intensification of human-forced climate change began from about 1970 onwards with steepening increases in greenhouse gases, ocean acidification, global temperature and sea level, along with ice loss. The resulting distinction between relatively stable Holocene climatic conditions and those of the proposed Anthropocene epoch is substantial, with many aspects irreversible. The still-rising trajectory of greenhouse gas emissions is leading to yet greater and more permanent divergence of the Anthropocene from the Holocene Earth System. We focus here on the effects of the ensuing climate transformation and its impact on the likely duration of this novel state of the Earth System.
Given the magnitude and rapid rise of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), its long lifetime in the atmosphere, and the present disequilibrium in Earth's energy budget (expressed as the Earth's Energy Imbalance, or EEI), both temperatures and sea level must continue to rise – even with carbon emissions lowered to net zero (where anthropogenic CO2 emissions = anthropogenic CO2 removals) – until the energy budget balance is eventually restored. Even if net zero were achieved immediately, elevated global temperatures would persist for at least several tens of millennia, with expected levels of warmth by the end of this century not seen since the early Late Pliocene. Interglacial conditions are likely to persist for at least 50,000 years under already-accumulated CO2 emissions and Earth's low eccentricity orbit. Continued increases in greenhouse gas emissions are likely to extend that persistence to around 500,000 years, suppressing the pronounced expression of Milankovitch cyclicity typical of the later Pleistocene Epoch. This major perturbation alone is sufficient to justify the Anthropocene as terminating the Holocene Epoch. The wider and mostly irreversible effects of climate change, not least in amplifying reconfiguration of the biosphere, emphasize the scale of this departure from Holocene conditions, justifying the establishment of a new epoch.
Given such perspectives, the Anthropocene epoch represents what will become a lasting and substantial change in the Earth System. It is the Holocene Epoch at only 11,700 years duration that will appear as the ‘blip’ in the Geological Time Scale, a brief interval when complex, settled human societies co-existed with, but did not overwhelm, a stable Earth System.
期刊介绍:
The objective of the journal Global and Planetary Change is to provide a multi-disciplinary overview of the processes taking place in the Earth System and involved in planetary change over time. The journal focuses on records of the past and current state of the earth system, and future scenarios , and their link to global environmental change. Regional or process-oriented studies are welcome if they discuss global implications. Topics include, but are not limited to, changes in the dynamics and composition of the atmosphere, oceans and cryosphere, as well as climate change, sea level variation, observations/modelling of Earth processes from deep to (near-)surface and their coupling, global ecology, biogeography and the resilience/thresholds in ecosystems.
Key criteria for the consideration of manuscripts are (a) the relevance for the global scientific community and/or (b) the wider implications for global scale problems, preferably combined with (c) having a significance beyond a single discipline. A clear focus on key processes associated with planetary scale change is strongly encouraged.
Manuscripts can be submitted as either research contributions or as a review article. Every effort should be made towards the presentation of research outcomes in an understandable way for a broad readership.