Waves or ripples: African countries risk shocks and the survival of Chinese exports to Africa

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of risk shocks in Africa on the stability of Chinese firms' export relationships by analyzing risk fluctuations and using survival analysis to measure their effect. The findings reveal that risk shocks significantly increase the survival risk of Chinese firms' export relationships, leading to a notable reduction in stability. Private and non-foreign firms are more vulnerable to these risks, but certain market strategies such as learning-by-doing, learning from neighboring firms, and waiting strategies can effectively mitigate their adverse effects on export stability. Our findings indicate that certain market strategies, such as learning-by-doing, learning from neighboring firms, and waiting strategies, can effectively mitigate the adverse effects of risk shocks on export stability. Interestingly, a nonlinear marginal effect is observed in the case of the waiting-timing strategy. However, adopting a multi-destination strategy tends to worsen the negative impact of risk shocks on export stability, especially for private firms. Furthermore, non-market strategies employed by firms that promote government diplomatic behavior help reduce this negative impact.