How does Russia's economy affect the region? Transmission channels and policy options

IF 5.6 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE
Shant Arzoumanian
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

This paper studies how output fluctuations in Russia are transmitted internationally. Using dynamic panel models, the paper finds that Russia's output fluctuations are an important driver of output fluctuations of countries in the region, especially for oil importers, and are transmitted increasingly via trade and market confidence channels. The magnitude of cross-border spillovers is larger for countries with relatively high bilateral trade concentration, low export diversification, and weak external buffers. The paper also finds evidence that stronger public institutional quality- especially in the fiscal area- may help insulate countries from volatility in the Russian sovereign debt market.
俄罗斯经济如何影响本地区?传播渠道和政策选择
本文研究了俄罗斯的产出波动如何在国际上传播。通过使用动态面板模型,本文发现俄罗斯的产出波动是该地区国家(尤其是石油进口国)产出波动的重要驱动因素,并且越来越多地通过贸易和市场信心渠道进行传播。对于双边贸易集中度相对较高、出口多样化程度较低、外部缓冲能力较弱的国家来说,跨境溢出效应的幅度更大。本文还发现,有证据表明,较强的公共机构质量--尤其是在财政领域--可能有助于使各国免受俄罗斯主权债务市场波动的影响。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
7.10
自引率
4.20%
发文量
85
审稿时长
100 days
期刊介绍: The intent of the editors is to consolidate Emerging Markets Review as the premier vehicle for publishing high impact empirical and theoretical studies in emerging markets finance. Preference will be given to comparative studies that take global and regional perspectives, detailed single country studies that address critical policy issues and have significant global and regional implications, and papers that address the interactions of national and international financial architecture. We especially welcome papers that take institutional as well as financial perspectives.
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