Data-model driven probability model of branch power flow for distribution networks and its application to analysis of overload and line loss

IF 3.3 3区工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, ELECTRICAL & ELECTRONIC

Electric Power Systems Research Pub Date : 2024-10-07 DOI:10.1016/j.epsr.2024.111140

Ren Zhang , Haoming Liu , Jian Wang , Haiqing Cai , Haohan Gu , Wei Chen , Zhihao Chen

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

The fluctuation of highly penetrated distributed generations (DGs) in distribution networks (DNs) increases branch overload risks, which makes the analysis uncertainty of branch power flow more complex. The probability analysis of branch power can grasp the power flow operation characteristics under uncertain conditions, which supports the power flow optimization management and ensures the safe and economic operation of DNs. Therefore, this paper proposes a data-model driven probability analysis method for branch power flow in DNs. An approximate branch power model is first derived to reveal the analytical relationship between branch power and node power. Then, based on the branch power approximation model and the forecasting error, the datasets of branch apparent power are constructed to capture the complex nonlinear characteristics of the power flow. The non-Gaussian distribution characteristics of branch apparent power and line loss are described by the optimal probability fitting method. Finally, the probability level of branch overload is evaluated and the probability distribution of line loss is analyzed. The case studies demonstrate that the branch power approximation model is highly accurate, and the probability distribution of the branch apparent power presents different characteristics. The proposed method can quickly and accurately calculate the branch overload probability level.

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数据模型驱动的配电网分支电力流概率模型及其在过载和线损分析中的应用

配电网（DN）中高渗透率分布式发电（DG）的波动增加了支路过载风险，使得支路功率流的不确定性分析变得更加复杂。通过对支路功率的概率分析，可以掌握不确定条件下的功率流运行特性，为功率流优化管理提供支持，确保配电网的安全经济运行。因此，本文提出了一种数据模型驱动的 DNs 分支功率流概率分析方法。首先推导出近似的分支功率模型，揭示了分支功率与节点功率之间的分析关系。然后，基于支路功率近似模型和预测误差，构建支路视在功率数据集，以捕捉功率流的复杂非线性特征。支路视在功率和线路损耗的非高斯分布特征采用最优概率拟合方法进行描述。最后，评估了分支过载的概率水平，并分析了线路损耗的概率分布。案例研究表明，支路功率近似模型非常准确，支路视在功率的概率分布呈现出不同的特征。所提出的方法可以快速准确地计算出分支过载概率水平。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Electric Power Systems Research 工程技术-工程：电子与电气

CiteScore

7.50

自引率

17.90%

发文量

963

审稿时长

3.8 months

期刊介绍： Electric Power Systems Research is an international medium for the publication of original papers concerned with the generation, transmission, distribution and utilization of electrical energy. The journal aims at presenting important results of work in this field, whether in the form of applied research, development of new procedures or components, orginal application of existing knowledge or new designapproaches. The scope of Electric Power Systems Research is broad, encompassing all aspects of electric power systems. The following list of topics is not intended to be exhaustive, but rather to indicate topics that fall within the journal purview. • Generation techniques ranging from advances in conventional electromechanical methods, through nuclear power generation, to renewable energy generation. • Transmission, spanning the broad area from UHV (ac and dc) to network operation and protection, line routing and design. • Substation work: equipment design, protection and control systems. • Distribution techniques, equipment development, and smart grids. • The utilization area from energy efficiency to distributed load levelling techniques. • Systems studies including control techniques, planning, optimization methods, stability, security assessment and insulation coordination.