Decommissioning of a fuel oil-fired thermoelectric power plant in Brazil - Economic feasibility under certain and risk conditions

IF 3.3 2区社会学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Sustainable Futures Pub Date : 2024-10-06 DOI:10.1016/j.sftr.2024.100332

Amadeu Junior da Silva Fonseca , Roberto Castro , Dorel Soares Ramos , João Carlos de Oliveira Mello , Luiz Célio Souza Rocha , Camila Seibel Gehrke , Edvaldo Pereira Santos Júnior , Wilton Lima Sousa , Luiz Moreira Coelho Junior

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Abstract

The strategic analysis for the decommissioning of thermoelectric plants is seen as a trend for the coming years. The search for renewable alternatives should stimulate investment in other energy sources, reducing the number of thermoelectric plants in the energy generation system. However, few studies have dealt with the decommissioning of oil-fired thermoelectric plants. In this work, the methodology was applied under deterministic and stochastic conditions using methods of net present value (NPV), internal rate of return (IRR), discounted payback, capital asset pricing model (CAPM) and weighted average cost of capital (WACC). The results showed that the deterministic NPV was positive, ranging from R$101.30 million (pessimistic scenario) to R$109.73 million (optimistic scenario). The IRR was higher than the WACC of 10.55 %, ranging from 13.50 % to 13.68 % per year. For the Monte Carlo simulation, NPV was observed with 100 % certainty of viability and the probabilities of occurrence allowed more analysis of the risks involved than those obtained by deterministic methods. this study contributes to future decommissioning projects in Brazil, considering the scenario of stimulating renewable sources and the energy transition, helping managers make decisions about their projects. In addition, it helps guide public policies that can optimize the decommissioning process and strengthen the national energy sector.

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巴西一座燃油热电厂的退役--特定条件和风险条件下的经济可行性

热电厂退役的战略分析被视为未来几年的趋势。对可再生替代能源的探索将刺激对其他能源的投资，从而减少能源生产系统中热电厂的数量。然而，很少有研究涉及燃油热电厂的退役问题。在这项工作中，采用净现值 (NPV)、内部收益率 (IRR)、贴现投资回收期、资本资产定价模型 (CAPM) 和加权平均资本成本 (WACC) 等方法，在确定性和随机条件下应用了该方法。结果表明，确定性净现值为正值，从 1.013 亿雷亚尔（悲观方案）到 1.0973 亿雷亚尔（乐观方案）不等。内部收益率高于 10.55%的加权平均资本成本，从每年 13.50%到 13.68%不等。在蒙特卡洛模拟中，净现值（NPV）的确定性为 100%，与确定性方法相比，发生概率允许对所涉及的风险进行更多分析。这项研究有助于巴西未来的退役项目，考虑到刺激可再生能源和能源转型的情况，帮助管理人员对其项目做出决策。此外，它还有助于指导公共政策，优化退役过程并加强国家能源部门。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Sustainable Futures Social Sciences-Sociology and Political Science

CiteScore

9.30

自引率

1.80%

发文量

审稿时长

71 days

期刊介绍： Sustainable Futures: is a journal focused on the intersection of sustainability, environment and technology from various disciplines in social sciences, and their larger implications for corporation, government, education institutions, regions and society both at present and in the future. It provides an advanced platform for studies related to sustainability and sustainable development in society, economics, environment, and culture. The scope of the journal is broad and encourages interdisciplinary research, as well as welcoming theoretical and practical research from all methodological approaches.