Wind power forecasting with metaheuristic-based feature selection and neural networks

Abstract

Accurate forecasting of wind power generation is crucial for ensuring a stable and efficient energy supply, reducing the environmental impact of energy production, and promoting a cleaner and more sustainable energy supply. Inaccurate forecasts can lead to a mismatch between wind power generation and energy demand, resulting in wasted energy, increased emissions, and reduced grid stability. Therefore, improving the accuracy of wind power generation forecasting is essential for optimizing energy storage and grid management, reducing the reliance on fossil fuels, decreasing greenhouse gas emissions, and promoting a more sustainable energy future. This study proposes an innovative approach to enhance wind power generation forecasting accuracy by leveraging the strengths of metaheuristic algorithms for feature selection and integrating them with Neural Networks (NN). Specifically, five distinct algorithms - Genetic Algorithm (GA), Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), Ant Colony Optimization (ACO), Teaching-Learning-Based Optimization (TLBO), and Evolutionary Mating Algorithm (EMA) - are integrated with NN model to identify optimal feature subsets from a comprehensive dataset of 18 diverse features. The results show that the GA consistently outperforms other algorithms in selecting the most influential features, leading to improved precision in wind power predictions. Notably, the GA achieves the best root mean square error (RMSE) of 37.1837 and the best mean absolute error (MAE) of 18.6313, outperforming the other algorithms and demonstrating the importance of feature selection in improving the accuracy of wind power forecasting. This innovative framework advances the field of renewable energy forecasting and provides valuable insights into optimizing feature sets for improved predictions across diverse domains.