Harmonizing Campylobacter risk assessments across European countries – can the pooled process hygiene criteria data be used in the Danish risk assessment model?

Abstract

This study investigated the possibility of harmonizing quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA) for Campylobacter spp. across European (EU) countries. French Campylobacter data (2020–2021) from neck skin (NS) pools, sampled at slaughterhouses under the European surveillance component for Food Business Operators (FBOs), were adapted to inform a QMRA model that, among others, has been used within the Danish Action Plan against Campylobacter, on the basis of single leg skins (LS) data. Datasets included culture results (in colony forming unit per gram, CFU/g) from 1,284 broiler flocks slaughtered at 13 slaughterhouses representing broiler production in western France. Five pools (of 2–4 NS samples each) per flock were tested. One pool per tested flock was randomly chosen for the analysis. After conducting descriptive statistics (on flock prevalence and meat contaminations across months and years), three contamination transformation factors (CTFs) were estimated to translate NS pools contaminations into single LS contamination, based on data from French and Danish studies. A reference simulation scenario (ScenRef) was set with CTF = 3.2 (i.e. NS pool concentration divided by 3.2); while other 13 scenarios represented an alternative scenario analysis to investigate the impact of: the CTF value (ScenMin with CTF = 2 and ScenMax with CTF = 10), censored test results (ScenUncens) and random choice of pool per flock (ScenSampling-1 to 10), on the risk estimates. The average monthly/annual risk of human disease per poultry meal and the monthly/annual relative risk (RR) of 2021 compared to 2020, were estimated. In ScenRef, the annual RR was 1.22, suggesting an increase of risk of ≈ 22 % in 2021 compared to 2020. The impact of CTFs, censored data and randomized pool sampling per flock, on the annual and (most) monthly RRs, appeared limited. This study gives an overview of the strengths and limitations to be considered for adapting the French FBO data into the Danish model and to harmonize risk assessments across EU countries, accordingly. To reduce uncertainty in risk estimates, it could be considered increasing representativeness of NS tested flock populations and/or using LS rather than NS samples; because LS samples are more representative of actually retailed meat contaminations. If NS pools are maintained, the relationships between concentrations on NS pools and those on consumed meat requires further investigation.