{"title":"Option-based variables and future stock returns in normal times and recessions","authors":"Özgür Şafak Açıkalın, Zeynep Önder","doi":"10.1016/j.bir.2024.09.001","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We examine the prediction of future returns of optionable stocks trading in the US exchanges by several option-based variables for the period between 1996 and 2015. It is found that option-based variables are significant factors in estimating future stock returns in normal periods and during recessions. The spread between weighted averages of implied volatilities calculated with all call and put options of underlying stocks is found to have the highest effect on future stock returns. Although the mean squared errors of the option models are significantly higher during recessions than the expansion periods, the model with option-based variables outperforms the market model and the Fama-French Three Factor Model in both recessions and the whole sample period. The findings suggest that option-based models incorporate information about extreme events more than the traditional models.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46690,"journal":{"name":"Borsa Istanbul Review","volume":"24 ","pages":"Pages 80-87"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3000,"publicationDate":"2024-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Borsa Istanbul Review","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214845024001273","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"BUSINESS, FINANCE","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
We examine the prediction of future returns of optionable stocks trading in the US exchanges by several option-based variables for the period between 1996 and 2015. It is found that option-based variables are significant factors in estimating future stock returns in normal periods and during recessions. The spread between weighted averages of implied volatilities calculated with all call and put options of underlying stocks is found to have the highest effect on future stock returns. Although the mean squared errors of the option models are significantly higher during recessions than the expansion periods, the model with option-based variables outperforms the market model and the Fama-French Three Factor Model in both recessions and the whole sample period. The findings suggest that option-based models incorporate information about extreme events more than the traditional models.
期刊介绍:
Peer Review under the responsibility of Borsa İstanbul Anonim Sirketi. Borsa İstanbul Review provides a scholarly platform for empirical financial studies including but not limited to financial markets and institutions, financial economics, investor behavior, financial centers and market structures, corporate finance, recent economic and financial trends. Micro and macro data applications and comparative studies are welcome. Country coverage includes advanced, emerging and developing economies. In particular, we would like to publish empirical papers with significant policy implications and encourage submissions in the following areas: Research Topics: • Investments and Portfolio Management • Behavioral Finance • Financial Markets and Institutions • Market Microstructure • Islamic Finance • Financial Risk Management • Valuation • Capital Markets Governance • Financial Regulations