Whether higher risk indicates severe loss in the flood disaster assessment: A comparative analysis in the Hubei province of central China

IF 4.7 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies Pub Date : 2024-10-09 DOI:10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.102002

Guizhen Guo , Yang Gao , Kun Sun

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Study region

Hubei province, Yangtze River Basin, Central China

Study focus

Risk and loss analysis constitutes a critical element of flood disaster management. Nevertheless, the relationship between risk and loss has been infrequently examined in the literature. Here we developed a comparative analysis framework for assessing flood risk and loss in Hubei Province. The risk model incorporates 22 indicators in terms of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and emergency response & recovery capability. Indicator weights were determined through a combination of objective and subjective weighting methods based on the game theory. Flood risk and loss levels were classified using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and grey correlation analysis respectively.

New hydrological insights

Annual risk and loss maps exhibit a spatial pattern of higher levels in the eastern regions and lower levels in the western regions. However, the relationship between risk and loss was not as well as expected during designated flood periods. While regions impacted by disasters typically demonstrated higher risk levels, the risk in the regions unaffected by flood disasters appeared to be overestimated. By analyzing flood risk and loss across various temporal scales, this research contributes a novel perspective for the evaluation of flood risk models.

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在洪水灾害评估中，风险越高是否意味着损失越严重：中国中部湖北省的比较分析

研究地区湖北省，长江流域，中国中部研究重点风险和损失分析是洪水灾害管理的关键要素。然而，风险与损失之间的关系在文献中却鲜有研究。在此，我们开发了一个用于评估湖北省洪水风险和损失的比较分析框架。该风险模型包含 22 个指标，涉及危害、风险暴露、脆弱性、应急响应和恢复能力。指标权重通过基于博弈论的客观和主观权重相结合的方法确定。新的水文见解年度风险和损失图显示出东部地区风险和损失水平较高，西部地区风险和损失水平较低的空间模式。然而，在指定的洪水期，风险和损失之间的关系并不像预期的那么好。虽然受灾害影响的地区通常显示出较高的风险水平，但未受洪水灾害影响的地区的风险似乎被高估了。通过分析不同时间尺度的洪水风险和损失，这项研究为评估洪水风险模型提供了一个新的视角。

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来源期刊

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies Earth and Planetary Sciences-Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous)

CiteScore

6.70

自引率

8.50%

发文量

284

审稿时长

60 days

期刊介绍： Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies publishes original research papers enhancing the science of hydrology and aiming at region-specific problems, past and future conditions, analysis, review and solutions. The journal particularly welcomes research papers that deliver new insights into region-specific hydrological processes and responses to changing conditions, as well as contributions that incorporate interdisciplinarity and translational science.