Long-term geomagnetic activities and stratospheric winter temperature

IF 1.8 4区地球科学 Q3 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS

Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics Pub Date : 2024-09-29 DOI:10.1016/j.jastp.2024.106361

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

In this research, impact of long term solar forcing on stratospheric winter temperature is checked. The 11- year sunspot activity and geomagnetic indices (AE, Kp, Dst) are used as an indicator for solar forcing, as geomagnetic activity indices show good correlation with solar variability. To understand the impact of solar forcing through high latitude, stratospheric winter (November to March) time North Polar Region (60N–90N) temperature anomalies are considered. The findings showed that temperature changes in the stratosphere are significantly correlated with solar activity, as evidenced by a significant positive correlation between the 11-year moving mean of stratospheric (10 hPa) temperature anomalies and sunspot number. Approximately from 1970 to 2000, the North Polar Region saw positive anomalous stratospheric winter temperatures. During the same time, the geomagnetic activity also showed a substantial increase. The year-to-year correlation between stratospheric pole temperature and geomagnetic activity is significant (about 0.5). The Empirical Mode Decomposition analysis reveals a highly significant correlation (around 0.9) between the long-term component of stratospheric winter temperature (IMF-4) and the long-term component of geomagnetic activity (IMF-3 and IMF-4). One of the reasons for the increase in lower stratospheric temperature is an increase in ozone concentration during the same period when geomagnetic activity is higher. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) and correlation analysis of stratospheric winter temperature with large-scale circulation patterns are also carried out. The spatial correlation is checked for stratospheric winter temperature at North Pole and lower atmospheric levels (250 hPa and 850 hPa) followed by pre-monsoon and monsoon season. This study includes statistical analysis, however, also highlights the necessity of in-depth dynamical analysis to improve our understanding of how solar activity impacts Earth's atmospheric layers, which may be helpful in predicting the weather and climate.

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长期地磁活动与平流层冬季温度

这项研究检验了长期太阳强迫对平流层冬季温度的影响。11 年太阳黑子活动和地磁指数（AE、Kp、Dst）被用作太阳强迫的指标，因为地磁活动指数与太阳变化具有良好的相关性。为了解太阳强迫通过高纬度产生的影响，考虑了平流层冬季（11 月至次年 3 月）北极地区（60N-90N）的温度异常。研究结果表明，平流层的温度变化与太阳活动密切相关，平流层（10 hPa）温度异常的 11 年移动平均值与太阳黑子数之间存在显著的正相关关系就是证明。大约从 1970 年到 2000 年，北极地区的冬季平流层温度出现了正异常。在同一时期，地磁活动也出现了大幅增加。平流层极点温度与地磁活动之间的逐年相关性非常显著（约为 0.5）。经验模式分解分析表明，平流层冬季温度的长期分量（IMF-4）与地磁活动的长期分量（IMF-3 和 IMF-4）之间存在高度显著的相关性（约 0.9）。平流层低层温度上升的原因之一是在地磁活动较强的同一时期臭氧浓度增加。还对平流层冬季温度与大尺度环流模式进行了经验正交函数（EOF）和相关性分析。检查了北极和较低大气层（250 hPa 和 850 hPa）的平流层冬季温度与季风前和季风季节的空间相关性。这项研究包括统计分析，但也强调有必要进行深入的动态分析，以提高我们对太阳活动如何影响地球大气层的认识，这可能有助于预测天气和气候。

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来源期刊

Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 地学-地球化学与地球物理

CiteScore

4.10

自引率

5.30%

发文量

审稿时长

6 months

期刊介绍： The Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics (JASTP) is an international journal concerned with the inter-disciplinary science of the Earth''s atmospheric and space environment, especially the highly varied and highly variable physical phenomena that occur in this natural laboratory and the processes that couple them. The journal covers the physical processes operating in the troposphere, stratosphere, mesosphere, thermosphere, ionosphere, magnetosphere, the Sun, interplanetary medium, and heliosphere. Phenomena occurring in other "spheres", solar influences on climate, and supporting laboratory measurements are also considered. The journal deals especially with the coupling between the different regions. Solar flares, coronal mass ejections, and other energetic events on the Sun create interesting and important perturbations in the near-Earth space environment. The physics of such "space weather" is central to the Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics and the journal welcomes papers that lead in the direction of a predictive understanding of the coupled system. Regarding the upper atmosphere, the subjects of aeronomy, geomagnetism and geoelectricity, auroral phenomena, radio wave propagation, and plasma instabilities, are examples within the broad field of solar-terrestrial physics which emphasise the energy exchange between the solar wind, the magnetospheric and ionospheric plasmas, and the neutral gas. In the lower atmosphere, topics covered range from mesoscale to global scale dynamics, to atmospheric electricity, lightning and its effects, and to anthropogenic changes.