Climate feedback from plant physiological responses to increasing atmospheric CO2 in Earth system models

Abstract

SummaryPlant physiological responses to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration (iCO2), including enhanced photosynthesis and reduced stomatal conductance, impact regional and global climate. Here, I describe recent advances in understanding these effects through Earth system models (ESMs). Idealized simulations of a 1% annual iCO2 show that despite fertilization, CO2 physiological forcing contributes to 10% of warming and at least 30% of future precipitation decline in Amazonia. This reduces aboveground vegetation carbon storage and triggers positive carbon–climate feedback. ESM simulations indicate that reduced transpiration and increased heat stress from iCO2 could amplify meteorological drought and wildfire risks. Understanding these climate feedbacks is essential for improving carbon accounting in natural climate solutions, such as avoiding deforestation and reforestation, as iCO2 complicates assessing their climate benefits.