Early Warning of Vulnerability to Re-Poverty in China: Integrating Regional and Household Perspectives

IF 2 4区 社会学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES
Xiaoyan Yan, Boming Zheng, Xinhua Qi, Jinhuang Lin
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Abstract

The establishment of an accurate early warning and intervention mechanism for re-poverty (i.e., returning to poverty) is a valuable tool for consolidating the achievements of the Chinese government in poverty alleviation and the effective connection with rural revitalization since completing the task of eliminating absolute poverty. The occurrence of the re-poverty phenomenon is closely related to the vulnerability characteristics of the subject. This paper constructs a vulnerability to re-poverty analysis framework that integrate regional and household perspectives based on "capital-capacity-welfare". Zherong County was selected as the case study where the vulnerability assessment model and GeoDetector were adopted to undertake an early warning and Interactive detection analysis respectively. The results show that: (1) The degree of vulnerability to re-poverty of most townships and households in Zherong County is relatively low after the withdrawal of absolute poverty; (2) At the regional level, among 9 townships of Zherong county, the social welfare is more vulnerable than geographical capital and economic capacity, and the degree of vulnerability to re-poverty of Fuxi and Zhayang are relatively high, with warning level III; (3) Among the 737 low-income households registered, 98.4% of them aligned with warning level I and II, only 1.6% of them aligned with warning level III. However, households' livelihood capital vulnerability is generally relatively high, and the improvement of household self-development motivation is still insufficient; (4) Household vulnerability to re-poverty is influenced by both regional and household factors, and the interaction between the two factors can enhance each other's explanatory power to HVRI. We divided the risk into four types and proposed corresponding policy implications based on the coupling of regional and household vulnerability to re-poverty early warning.

中国再贫困脆弱性预警:综合区域和家庭视角
建立精准的再贫困(即返贫)预警和干预机制,是中国政府在完成消除绝对贫困任务后,巩固扶贫成果、与乡村振兴有效衔接的重要手段。再贫困现象的发生与主体的脆弱性特征密切相关。本文以 "资本-能力-福利 "为基础,结合区域和家庭视角,构建了再贫困脆弱性分析框架。以柘荣县为例,采用脆弱性评估模型和 GeoDetector 分别进行预警分析和互动检测分析。结果表明(1)绝对贫困退出后,柘荣县大部分乡镇和农户的再贫困脆弱性程度相对较低;(2)在区域层面上,柘荣县 9 个乡镇中,社会福利的脆弱性程度高于地理资本和经济能力,富溪和遮阳的再贫困脆弱性程度相对较高,预警等级为Ⅲ级;(3)在登记的 737 户低保户中,98.4%的低保户符合Ⅰ级和Ⅱ级预警,只有 1.6%的低保户符合Ⅲ级预警。但是,家庭的生计资本脆弱性普遍较高,家庭自我发展动力的提升仍然不足;(4)家庭再贫困脆弱性受区域和家庭两个因素的影响,两个因素之间的相互作用可以增强彼此对 HVRI 的解释力。我们将风险分为四种类型,并根据区域和家庭再贫困脆弱性预警的耦合关系提出了相应的政策启示。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
3.80
自引率
5.30%
发文量
57
期刊介绍: Description The journal has an applied focus: it actively promotes the importance of geographical research in real world settings It is policy-relevant: it seeks both a readership and contributions from practitioners as well as academics The substantive foundation is spatial analysis: the use of quantitative techniques to identify patterns and processes within geographic environments The combination of these points, which are fully reflected in the naming of the journal, establishes a unique position in the marketplace. RationaleA geographical perspective has always been crucial to the understanding of the social and physical organisation of the world around us. The techniques of spatial analysis provide a powerful means for the assembly and interpretation of evidence, and thus to address critical questions about issues such as crime and deprivation, immigration and demographic restructuring, retailing activity and employment change, resource management and environmental improvement. Many of these issues are equally important to academic research as they are to policy makers and Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy aims to close the gap between these two perspectives by providing a forum for discussion of applied research in a range of different contexts  Topical and interdisciplinaryIncreasingly government organisations, administrative agencies and private businesses are requiring research to support their ‘evidence-based’ strategies or policies. Geographical location is critical in much of this work which extends across a wide range of disciplines including demography, actuarial sciences, statistics, public sector planning, business planning, economics, epidemiology, sociology, social policy, health research, environmental management.   FocusApplied Spatial Analysis and Policy will draw on applied research from diverse problem domains, such as transport, policing, education, health, environment and leisure, in different international contexts. The journal will therefore provide insights into the variations in phenomena that exist across space, it will provide evidence for comparative policy analysis between domains and between locations, and stimulate ideas about the translation of spatial analysis methods and techniques across varied policy contexts. It is essential to know how to measure, monitor and understand spatial distributions, many of which have implications for those with responsibility to plan and enhance the society and the environment in which we all exist.   Readership and Editorial BoardAs a journal focused on applications of methods of spatial analysis, Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy will be of interest to scholars and students in a wide range of academic fields, to practitioners in government and administrative agencies and to consultants in private sector organisations. The Editorial Board reflects the international and multidisciplinary nature of the journal.
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