{"title":"Prediction and Inference: From Models and Data to Artificial Intelligence","authors":"Luca Gammaitoni, Angelo Vulpiani","doi":"10.1007/s10701-024-00803-4","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In this paper we present a discussion of the basic aspects of the well-known problem of prediction and inference in physics, with specific attention to the role of models, the use of data and the application of recent developments in artificial intelligence. By focussing in the time evolution of dynamic system, it is shown that main difficulties in predictions arise due to the presence of few factors as: the occurrence of chaotic dynamics, the existence of many variables with very different characteristic time-scales and the lack of an accurate understanding of the underlying physical phenomena. It is shown that a crucial role is assigned to the preliminary identification of the proper variables, their selection and the identification of an appropriate level of description (coarse-graining procedure). Moreover, it is discussed the relevance, even in modern practical issues, of old well-known fundamental results, like the Poincaré recurrence theorem, the Kac’s lemma and the Richard’s paradox.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":569,"journal":{"name":"Foundations of Physics","volume":"54 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.2000,"publicationDate":"2024-10-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10701-024-00803-4.pdf","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Foundations of Physics","FirstCategoryId":"101","ListUrlMain":"https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10701-024-00803-4","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"物理与天体物理","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"PHYSICS, MULTIDISCIPLINARY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
In this paper we present a discussion of the basic aspects of the well-known problem of prediction and inference in physics, with specific attention to the role of models, the use of data and the application of recent developments in artificial intelligence. By focussing in the time evolution of dynamic system, it is shown that main difficulties in predictions arise due to the presence of few factors as: the occurrence of chaotic dynamics, the existence of many variables with very different characteristic time-scales and the lack of an accurate understanding of the underlying physical phenomena. It is shown that a crucial role is assigned to the preliminary identification of the proper variables, their selection and the identification of an appropriate level of description (coarse-graining procedure). Moreover, it is discussed the relevance, even in modern practical issues, of old well-known fundamental results, like the Poincaré recurrence theorem, the Kac’s lemma and the Richard’s paradox.
期刊介绍：
The conceptual foundations of physics have been under constant revision from the outset, and remain so today. Discussion of foundational issues has always been a major source of progress in science, on a par with empirical knowledge and mathematics. Examples include the debates on the nature of space and time involving Newton and later Einstein; on the nature of heat and of energy; on irreversibility and probability due to Boltzmann; on the nature of matter and observation measurement during the early days of quantum theory; on the meaning of renormalisation, and many others.
Today, insightful reflection on the conceptual structure utilised in our efforts to understand the physical world is of particular value, given the serious unsolved problems that are likely to demand, once again, modifications of the grammar of our scientific description of the physical world. The quantum properties of gravity, the nature of measurement in quantum mechanics, the primary source of irreversibility, the role of information in physics – all these are examples of questions about which science is still confused and whose solution may well demand more than skilled mathematics and new experiments.
Foundations of Physics is a privileged forum for discussing such foundational issues, open to physicists, cosmologists, philosophers and mathematicians. It is devoted to the conceptual bases of the fundamental theories of physics and cosmology, to their logical, methodological, and philosophical premises.
The journal welcomes papers on issues such as the foundations of special and general relativity, quantum theory, classical and quantum field theory, quantum gravity, unified theories, thermodynamics, statistical mechanics, cosmology, and similar.
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