Integrated Long-Term Expansion Planning and Short-Term Operation Assessment in Brazil Considering Utility-Scale Storage

Abstract

Long-term power system expansion planning aligned with current sustainable development policies plays a pivotal role in achieving global targets for energy transition, particularly in developing countries. This paper presents a comprehensive long-term expansion planning model for Brazil, taking into account decarbonisation pathways using OSeMOSYS integrated with Flextool. Four scenarios explore the potential benefits of increasing the share of variable renewable energy (VRE), specifically photovoltaic (PV) and offshore wind, to 40% of the total energy produced, both with and without a storage system. Results indicate that policies better aligned with net-zero strategies do not impose a significant cost burden.