A global mathematical model of climatic suitability for Plasmodium falciparum malaria.

IF 2.4 3区医学 Q3 INFECTIOUS DISEASES

Malaria Journal Pub Date : 2024-10-10 DOI:10.1186/s12936-024-05122-7

Owen Brown, Jennifer A Flegg, Daniel J Weiss, Nick Golding

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Abstract

Climatic conditions are a key determinant of malaria transmission intensity, through their impacts on both the parasite and its mosquito vectors. Mathematical models relating climatic conditions to malaria transmission can be used to develop spatial maps of climatic suitability for malaria. These maps underpin efforts to quantify the distribution and burden of malaria in humans, enabling improved monitoring and control. Previous work has developed mathematical models and global maps for the suitability of temperature for malaria transmission. In this paper, existing temperature-based models are extended to include two other important bioclimatic factors: humidity and rainfall. This model is combined with fine spatial resolution climatic data to produce a more biologically-realistic global map of climatic suitability for Plasmodium falciparum malaria. The climatic suitability index developed corresponds more closely than previous temperature suitability indices with the global distribution of P. falciparum malaria. There is weak agreement between the Malaria Atlas Project estimates of P. falciparum prevalence in Africa and the estimates of suitability solely based on temperature (Spearman Correlation coefficient of $ρ = 0.24$ ). The addition of humidity and then rainfall improves the comparison ( $ρ = 0.62$ when humidity added; $ρ = 0.70$ when both humidity and rainfall added). By incorporating the impacts of humidity and rainfall, this model identifies arid regions that are not climatically suitable for transmission of P. falciparum malaria. Incorporation of this improved index of climatic suitability into geospatial models can improve global estimates of malaria prevalence and transmission intensity.

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恶性疟原虫疟疾气候适宜性全球数学模型。

气候条件对寄生虫及其蚊虫媒介都有影响，是决定疟疾传播强度的关键因素。将气候条件与疟疾传播相关联的数学模型可用于绘制疟疾气候适宜性空间图。这些地图是量化疟疾在人类中的分布和负担的基础，有助于改善监测和控制。以往的工作已开发出温度适合疟疾传播的数学模型和全球地图。在本文中，对现有的基于温度的模型进行了扩展，纳入了另外两个重要的生物气候因子：湿度和降雨量。该模型与精细的空间分辨率气候数据相结合，绘制出更符合生物学现实的恶性疟原虫疟疾气候适宜性全球地图。与之前的温度适宜性指数相比，所开发的气候适宜性指数与恶性疟原虫疟疾的全球分布更为吻合。疟疾地图集项目对非洲恶性疟原虫流行率的估计值与仅基于温度的适宜性估计值之间的一致性较弱（斯皮尔曼相关系数 ρ = 0.24）。加入湿度和降雨量后，比较结果有所改善（加入湿度后，ρ = 0.62；同时加入湿度和降雨量后，ρ = 0.70）。通过纳入湿度和降雨量的影响，该模型确定了气候不适合恶性疟原虫疟疾传播的干旱地区。将这一改进的气候适宜性指数纳入地理空间模型，可以改善对疟疾流行率和传播强度的全球估计。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Malaria Journal 医学-寄生虫学

CiteScore

5.10

自引率

23.30%

发文量

334

审稿时长

2-4 weeks

期刊介绍： Malaria Journal is aimed at the scientific community interested in malaria in its broadest sense. It is the only journal that publishes exclusively articles on malaria and, as such, it aims to bring together knowledge from the different specialities involved in this very broad discipline, from the bench to the bedside and to the field.