Uncovering the interannual predictability of the 2003 European summer heatwave linked to the Tibetan Plateau

Abstract

Known as the Third Pole, the Tibetan Plateau (TP) significantly influences global weather and climate, but its potential for improving subseasonal-to-interannual predictions remains underexplored. Through coupled climate simulations and hindcast experiments, we uncovered interannual predictability of the 2003 European summer heatwave that persisted from June to August with devastating impacts. Hindcasts initialized from the atmosphere, land, and ocean states of a coupled simulation that assimilates soil moisture and soil temperature data over the TP show substantial skill in predicting this heatwave two years in advance. Hindcast sensitivity experiments isolated the indispensable role of the spring TP snow cover anomalies and their impact on the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans in exciting the Rossby waves that contributed to the anomalous European summer temperature. These findings highlight the dominant and remote influence of the TP and motivate research on its role in enhancing the predictability of extreme events worldwide.