CMIP6 models project a shrinking precipitation area

IF 8.5 1区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
Andreas Dobler, Rasmus E. Benestad, Cristian Lussana, Oskar Landgren
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Reanalysis and satellite data indicate a decreasing precipitation area in recent decades, affecting local water resources and precipitation intensities. We have used CMIP6 simulations to test the hypothesis of a shrinking precipitation area in a warming climate. Our analyses reveal that SSP5-8.5 projections show a robust decrease in the precipitation area between 50 °S and 50 °N, and globally in 75% of the simulations. The new findings support the observed relationship, although to a lesser extent than earlier found in reanalysis and satellite data. We find a poleward shift of precipitation, increasing the daily precipitation area in the Arctic from 18% to 28%. At lower latitudes the precipitation area is reduced due to a decreasing occurrence of precipitation. These changes are related to the expansion of low relative humidity zones in the lower-to-mid troposphere, specifically at the poleward edges of the subtropics.

Abstract Image

Abstract Image

CMIP6 模型预测降水区域将缩小
再分析和卫星数据显示,近几十年来降水面积不断缩小,影响了当地的水资源和降水强度。我们利用 CMIP6 模拟来检验气候变暖时降水面积缩小的假设。我们的分析表明,在 75% 的模拟中,SSP5-8.5 预测显示南纬 50 度和北纬 50 度之间的降水面积以及全球降水面积都出现了显著减少。新的研究结果支持观测到的关系,尽管其程度低于之前在再分析和卫星数据中发现的关系。我们发现降水向极地移动,北极地区的日降水量从 18% 增加到 28%。在低纬度地区,由于降水量减少,降水面积也随之缩小。这些变化与中低对流层低相对湿度区的扩大有关,特别是在亚热带的极地边缘。
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来源期刊
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Earth and Planetary Sciences-Atmospheric Science
CiteScore
8.80
自引率
3.30%
发文量
87
审稿时长
21 weeks
期刊介绍: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science is an open-access journal encompassing the relevant physical, chemical, and biological aspects of atmospheric and climate science. The journal places particular emphasis on regional studies that unveil new insights into specific localities, including examinations of local atmospheric composition, such as aerosols. The range of topics covered by the journal includes climate dynamics, climate variability, weather and climate prediction, climate change, ocean dynamics, weather extremes, air pollution, atmospheric chemistry (including aerosols), the hydrological cycle, and atmosphere–ocean and atmosphere–land interactions. The journal welcomes studies employing a diverse array of methods, including numerical and statistical modeling, the development and application of in situ observational techniques, remote sensing, and the development or evaluation of new reanalyses.
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