Spatial analysis and mapping of malaria endemic-prone areas using environmental risk factors and spatial multi criteria decision analysis in the Northern Zone of Plateau State, Nigeria.

Abstract

Background objectives: Compressive mapping and in-depth analysis of malaria vulnerability risk foci are important tools for strategic planning, vector surveillance, implementing necessary interventions, and managing scarce resources to combat the daunting challenges of malaria infections in Nigeria.

Methods: The study utilized environmental risk factors and spatial multi-criteria decision analysis techniques to analyze and map the spatial variations in malaria-endemic prone areas within the Northern Zone of Plateau State.

Results: Analysis of the criteria's weights of environmental risk factors and the stratification of the malaria risk vulnerability revealed that high-risk areas covered a total of 4017.25 Km2, while low-risk areas covered 1294.83Km2, having a close resemblance to the corresponding ground conditions. The results showed that a significant 60% of the study areas were characterized by high risk of malaria transmission, particularly in most settlements around the Jos North, Jos South and Barkin Ladi Local Government Areas. The malaria risk map's predictive abilities demonstrated a high level of accuracy, as indicated by the area under the curve score of 0.989. Furthermore, the risk map demonstrates a high-performance rate in identifying malaria hotspots, with a sensitivity of 98%, a proficiency rate of 54%, and a statistical significance confidence level ranging from 90% to 99% for identifying malaria hotspots and coldspots.

Interpretation conclusion: The malaria risk analysis and mapping within the endemic prone areas of the Northern Zone of Plateau State not only equips policymakers with effective tools for identifying malaria foci but also offers a deeper comprehension of the appropriate intervention measures to be implemented.