{"title":"Quantifying vulnerability to plant invasion across global ecosystems","authors":"William G. Pfadenhauer, Bethany A. Bradley","doi":"10.1002/eap.3031","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"The widely referenced “tens rule” in invasion ecology suggests that approximately 10% of established, non‐native species will become invasive. However, the accuracy of this estimate has been questioned, as the original analysis focused on small groups of plant species in Great Britain and Australia. Using a novel database of 9501 established plants and 2924 invasive plants, we provide a comprehensive evaluation of the tens rule and the first empirical analysis of how invasion rates vary across spatial scales, islands/mainlands, and climate zones. We found that invasion rates (the percentage of established species with negative impacts) are highly variable across the globe. Well‐sampled environments (those with at least 2000 total non‐native species recorded) had invasion rates that ranged from 7.2% to 33.8%. Invasion rates were strongly scale‐dependent, averaging 17% at the country scale and 25% at the continental scale. We found significantly higher invasion rates on islands when compared with mainlands, regardless of scale. Tropical ecosystems are often considered to be resistant to invasion; however, our results showed significantly higher invasion rates on both tropical islands and mainlands, suggesting unexpectedly high vulnerability of these species‐rich ecosystems. We conclude that the tens rule is a poor general estimate of invasion rates for plants, as calculated invasion rates vary widely and are frequently much higher than 10%. Most locations would be better served by using invasion rates that vary based on the recipient environment. Our updated estimates of invasion rates should be highly relevant for invasive species management strategies, including weed risk assessments, which can be adjusted to identify more species as high‐risk in areas where invasion rates are higher. Assuming that 10% of established species will become invasive is likely to substantially underestimate invasion rates in most geographies.","PeriodicalId":55168,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Applications","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.3000,"publicationDate":"2024-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Ecological Applications","FirstCategoryId":"93","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1002/eap.3031","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ECOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
The widely referenced “tens rule” in invasion ecology suggests that approximately 10% of established, non‐native species will become invasive. However, the accuracy of this estimate has been questioned, as the original analysis focused on small groups of plant species in Great Britain and Australia. Using a novel database of 9501 established plants and 2924 invasive plants, we provide a comprehensive evaluation of the tens rule and the first empirical analysis of how invasion rates vary across spatial scales, islands/mainlands, and climate zones. We found that invasion rates (the percentage of established species with negative impacts) are highly variable across the globe. Well‐sampled environments (those with at least 2000 total non‐native species recorded) had invasion rates that ranged from 7.2% to 33.8%. Invasion rates were strongly scale‐dependent, averaging 17% at the country scale and 25% at the continental scale. We found significantly higher invasion rates on islands when compared with mainlands, regardless of scale. Tropical ecosystems are often considered to be resistant to invasion; however, our results showed significantly higher invasion rates on both tropical islands and mainlands, suggesting unexpectedly high vulnerability of these species‐rich ecosystems. We conclude that the tens rule is a poor general estimate of invasion rates for plants, as calculated invasion rates vary widely and are frequently much higher than 10%. Most locations would be better served by using invasion rates that vary based on the recipient environment. Our updated estimates of invasion rates should be highly relevant for invasive species management strategies, including weed risk assessments, which can be adjusted to identify more species as high‐risk in areas where invasion rates are higher. Assuming that 10% of established species will become invasive is likely to substantially underestimate invasion rates in most geographies.
期刊介绍:
The pages of Ecological Applications are open to research and discussion papers that integrate ecological science and concepts with their application and implications. Of special interest are papers that develop the basic scientific principles on which environmental decision-making should rest, and those that discuss the application of ecological concepts to environmental problem solving, policy, and management. Papers that deal explicitly with policy matters are welcome. Interdisciplinary approaches are encouraged, as are short communications on emerging environmental challenges.