Climate change-induced degradation of expert range maps drawn for kissing bugs (Hemiptera: Reduviidae) and long-standing current and future sampling gaps across the Americas.
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引用次数: 0
Abstract
Background: Kissing bugs are the vectors of Trypanosoma cruzi, the etiological agent of Chagas disease (CD). Despite their epidemiological relevance, kissing bug species are under sampled in terms of their diversity and it is unclear what biases exist in available kissing bug data. Under climate change, range maps for kissing bugs may become less accurate as species shift their ranges to track climatic tolerance.
Objectives: Quantify inventory completeness in available kissing bug data. Assess how well range maps are at conveying information about current distributions and potential future distributions subject to shift under climate change. Intersect forecasted changes in kissing bug distributions with contemporary sampling gaps to identify regions for future sampling of the group. Identify whether a phylogenetic signal is present in expert range knowledge as more closely related species may be similarly well or lesser understood.
Methods: We used species distribution models (SDM), specifically constructed from Bayesian additive regression trees, with Bioclim variables, to forecast kissing bug distributions into 2100 and intersect these with current sampling gaps to identify priority regions for sampling. Expert range maps were assessed by the agreement between the expert map and SDM generated occurrence probability. We used classical hypothesis testing methods as well as tests of phylogenetic signal to meet our objectives.
Findings: Expert range maps vary in their quality of depicting current kissing bug distributions. Most expert range maps decline in their ability to convey information about kissing bug occurrence over time, especially in under sampled areas. We found limited evidence for a phylogenetic signal in expert range map performance.
Main conclusions: Expert range maps are not a perfect account of species distributions and may degrade in their ability to accurately convey distribution knowledge under future climates. We identify regions where future sampling of kissing bugs will be crucial for completing biodiversity inventories.
期刊介绍：
Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz is a journal specialized in microbes & their vectors causing human infections. This means that we accept manuscripts covering multidisciplinary approaches and findings in the basic aspects of infectious diseases, e.g. basic in research in prokariotes, eukaryotes, and/or virus. Articles must clearly show what is the main question to be answered, the hypothesis raised, and the contribution given by the study.
Priority is given to manuscripts reporting novel mechanisms and general findings concerning the biology of human infectious prokariotes, eukariotes or virus. Papers reporting innovative methods for diagnostics or that advance the basic research with these infectious agents are also welcome.
It is important to mention what we do not publish: veterinary infectious agents research, taxonomic analysis and re-description of species, epidemiological studies or surveys or case reports and data re-analysis. Manuscripts that fall in these cases or that are considered of low priority by the journal editorial board, will be returned to the author(s) for submission to another journal.
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