Postpandemic fluctuations of regional respiratory syncytial virus hospitalization epidemiology: potential impact on an immunization program in Switzerland.

Abstract

RSV hospitalization epidemiology is subject to rapid changes brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic and the prospect of vaccine prevention. The purpose of this report is to characterize recent epidemiologic and clinical fluctuations and to analyze their potential impact on an immunization program with nirsevimab. This is a 2018-2024 retrospective analysis of all hospitalizations caused by RSV in patients below 16 years of age occurring at an academic Children's Hospital that serves a defined population. We simulated the vaccine impact against RSV hospitalization by applying the expected effects of the infant immunization program with nirsevimab proposed in Switzerland to observed case counts. We analyzed 1339 hospitalizations. The consecutive occurrence of two major epidemics in 2022-2023 and 2023-2024 had never been recorded previously. The 2023-2024 season witnessed a major shift to older age. Only 61% of patients were below 12 months of age, while prepandemic long-term surveillance since 1997 found a range between 64 and 85% (median, 73%). Age below 3 months, prematurity, airway anomalies, congenital heart disease, and neuromuscular disorders were independently associated with ICU admission. Simulation of the vaccine impact using two scenarios of coverage and efficacy (scenario 1, 50% and 62%, respectively; scenario 2, 90% and 90%) and three different age distributions resulted in an infant vaccine impact of 31.0% (scenario 1) and 81.0% (scenario 2), respectively. Vaccine impact for all patients below 16 years ranged from 22.7 to 24.9% (scenario 1) and 54.2 to 68.8% (scenario 2).

Conclusion: RSV hospitalization epidemiology was characterized by substantial variability in patient age on admission. As the proposed RSV immunization program primarily targets infants, year-to-year fluctuation of cases among older children will cause a variability of vaccine impact of approximately 15%. This information may be useful for physicians and hospital administrators when they anticipate the resources needed during the winter season.

What is known: • RSV hospitalization epidemiology was subject to massive disturbances during the COVID-19 pandemic. • Extended half-life monoclonal antibodies and active maternal immunization offer new means of passive protection of infants against severe RSV disease.

What is new: • We demonstrate substantial year-to-year fluctuation of the age distribution at the time of RSV hospitalization. • Up to 40% of annual RSV hospitalizations in a given season occur in children above 12 months of age who do not benefit from maternal RSV immunization and may not be eligible for receipt of a monoclonal antibody.