Temperature-mortality associations by age and cause: a multi-country multi-city study.

IF 3.3 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Environmental Epidemiology Pub Date : 2024-09-24 eCollection Date: 2024-10-01 DOI:10.1097/EE9.0000000000000336
Noah Scovronick, Francesco Sera, Bryan Vu, Ana M Vicedo-Cabrera, Dominic Roye, Aurelio Tobias, Xerxes Seposo, Bertil Forsberg, Yuming Guo, Shanshan Li, Yasushi Honda, Rosana Abrutzky, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Paulo H Nascimento Saldiva, Eric Lavigne, Haidong Kan, Samuel Osorio, Jan Kyselý, Aleš Urban, Hans Orru, Ene Indermitte, Jouni J Jaakkola, Niilo Ryti, Mathilde Pascal, Klea Katsouyanni, Fatemeh Mayvaneh, Alireza Entezari, Patrick Goodman, Ariana Zeka, Paola Michelozzi, Francesca de'Donato, Masahiro Hashizume, Barak Alahmad, Antonella Zanobetti, Joel Schwartz, Miguel Hurtado Diaz, C De La Cruz Valencia, Shilpa Rao, Joana Madureira, Fiorella Acquaotta, Ho Kim, Whanhee Lee, Carmen Iniguez, Martina S Ragettli, Yue L Guo, Tran Ngoc Dang, Do V Dung, Benedict Armstrong, Antonio Gasparrini
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Background: Heterogeneity in temperature-mortality relationships across locations may partly result from differences in the demographic structure of populations and their cause-specific vulnerabilities. Here we conduct the largest epidemiological study to date on the association between ambient temperature and mortality by age and cause using data from 532 cities in 33 countries.

Methods: We collected daily temperature and mortality data from each country. Mortality data was provided as daily death counts within age groups from all, cardiovascular, respiratory, or noncardiorespiratory causes. We first fit quasi-Poisson regression models to estimate location-specific associations for each age-by-cause group. For each cause, we then pooled location-specific results in a dose-response multivariate meta-regression model that enabled us to estimate overall temperature-mortality curves at any age. The age analysis was limited to adults.

Results: We observed high temperature effects on mortality from both cardiovascular and respiratory causes compared to noncardiorespiratory causes, with the highest cold-related risks from cardiovascular causes and the highest heat-related risks from respiratory causes. Risks generally increased with age, a pattern most consistent for cold and for nonrespiratory causes. For every cause group, risks at both temperature extremes were strongest at the oldest age (age 85 years). Excess mortality fractions were highest for cold at the oldest ages.

Conclusions: There is a differential pattern of risk associated with heat and cold by cause and age; cardiorespiratory causes show stronger effects than noncardiorespiratory causes, and older adults have higher risks than younger adults.

按年龄和原因划分的气温与死亡率关系:一项多国多城市研究。
背景:各地气温与死亡率关系的异质性可能部分源于人口结构的差异及其特定原因造成的脆弱性。在此,我们利用来自 33 个国家 532 个城市的数据,对环境温度与不同年龄、不同死因的死亡率之间的关系进行了迄今为止最大规模的流行病学研究:我们收集了每个国家的每日气温和死亡率数据。死亡率数据以各年龄组每日死亡人数的形式提供,死亡原因包括所有原因、心血管原因、呼吸系统原因或非心血管原因。我们首先拟合了准泊松回归模型,以估算各年龄组与各病因的相关性。然后,我们在剂量-反应多变量元回归模型中汇集了每个病因的特定地点结果,从而能够估算出任何年龄段的总体温度-死亡率曲线。年龄分析仅限于成年人:结果:与非心肺原因相比,我们观察到温度对心血管和呼吸系统原因造成的死亡率影响较大,其中心血管原因造成的与寒冷相关的风险最高,而呼吸系统原因造成的与高温相关的风险最高。风险一般随年龄的增长而增加,这一模式在寒冷和非呼吸系统疾病中最为一致。对于每个病因组别,两种极端温度下的风险在年龄最大(85 岁)时最强。在年龄最大的人群中,寒冷导致的超额死亡率最高:结论:根据病因和年龄的不同,与冷热相关的风险模式也不同;心肺原因比非心肺原因的影响更大,老年人比年轻人的风险更高。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
Environmental Epidemiology
Environmental Epidemiology Medicine-Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health
CiteScore
5.70
自引率
2.80%
发文量
71
审稿时长
25 weeks
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