Beibei Che, Xubin Zheng, Bin Chen, Yinghong Lu, Yuge Zhang, Biao Xu
{"title":"The temporal trend of tuberculosis burden in an aging population in China: a secondary data analysis from the GBD 2019.","authors":"Beibei Che, Xubin Zheng, Bin Chen, Yinghong Lu, Yuge Zhang, Biao Xu","doi":"10.1186/s12890-024-03293-2","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>The rapid population aging in China has been a big challenge to achieve the goal of ending the global tuberculosis (TB) epidemic. This study aimed to describe the temporal trend of TB burden in China during 1990 ∼ 2019 and to evaluate the effect of age, period, and birth cohort on domestic TB burden, with a specific focus on the elderly.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>The trends of incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of TB among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) negative people were described using the data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study. Join-point regression model was applied to calculate the average annual percentage change (AAPC) of TB burden for different age groups. Age-period-cohort (APC) model was fitted for incidence and mortality, and relative risks (RR) were computed for each age group.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>In 2019, the highest TB deaths (5.23 thousand, 95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 4.38 ∼ 6.17) and DALYs (155.18 thousand, 95%UI: 126.47 ∼ 190.55) were observed in the HIV-negative population aged 70 ∼ 74 years in China. The proportion of those aged ≥ 60 years in newly diagnosed TB patients without HIV coinfection increased from 23.82% in 1990 to 37.54% in 2019, while TB deaths rose from 48.70 to 68.64%. During the past 30 years, the AAPC of age-standardized mortality (-7.77, confidence interval [CI]: -8.44∼ -7.10) and DALYs (-7.48, 95% CI: -7.98∼ -6.97) among HIV-negative individuals have shown a decrease, while much slower in the age groups above 70-year-old. The period effect and cohort effect contributed to the decline of TB incidence and mortality, but the age effect led to increasing TB mortality, especially among the ages of 85 ∼ 89 years (RR = 4.59, 95% CI: 4.25 ∼ 4.95).</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>The burden of TB remains considerable in the elderly population in China. More actions should be taken to improve case finding and the quality of TB healthcare for this high-risk population.</p>","PeriodicalId":9148,"journal":{"name":"BMC Pulmonary Medicine","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.6000,"publicationDate":"2024-09-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11437723/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"BMC Pulmonary Medicine","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s12890-024-03293-2","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"RESPIRATORY SYSTEM","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Background: The rapid population aging in China has been a big challenge to achieve the goal of ending the global tuberculosis (TB) epidemic. This study aimed to describe the temporal trend of TB burden in China during 1990 ∼ 2019 and to evaluate the effect of age, period, and birth cohort on domestic TB burden, with a specific focus on the elderly.
Methods: The trends of incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of TB among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) negative people were described using the data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study. Join-point regression model was applied to calculate the average annual percentage change (AAPC) of TB burden for different age groups. Age-period-cohort (APC) model was fitted for incidence and mortality, and relative risks (RR) were computed for each age group.
Results: In 2019, the highest TB deaths (5.23 thousand, 95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 4.38 ∼ 6.17) and DALYs (155.18 thousand, 95%UI: 126.47 ∼ 190.55) were observed in the HIV-negative population aged 70 ∼ 74 years in China. The proportion of those aged ≥ 60 years in newly diagnosed TB patients without HIV coinfection increased from 23.82% in 1990 to 37.54% in 2019, while TB deaths rose from 48.70 to 68.64%. During the past 30 years, the AAPC of age-standardized mortality (-7.77, confidence interval [CI]: -8.44∼ -7.10) and DALYs (-7.48, 95% CI: -7.98∼ -6.97) among HIV-negative individuals have shown a decrease, while much slower in the age groups above 70-year-old. The period effect and cohort effect contributed to the decline of TB incidence and mortality, but the age effect led to increasing TB mortality, especially among the ages of 85 ∼ 89 years (RR = 4.59, 95% CI: 4.25 ∼ 4.95).
Conclusions: The burden of TB remains considerable in the elderly population in China. More actions should be taken to improve case finding and the quality of TB healthcare for this high-risk population.
期刊介绍：
BMC Pulmonary Medicine is an open access, peer-reviewed journal that considers articles on all aspects of the prevention, diagnosis and management of pulmonary and associated disorders, as well as related molecular genetics, pathophysiology, and epidemiology.
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：
京公网安备 11010802042870号
