Further analysis of tuberculosis in eight high-burden countries based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 data.

IF 8.1 1区医学

Infectious Diseases of Poverty Pub Date : 2024-09-30 DOI:10.1186/s40249-024-01247-8

Hengliang Lv, Longhao Wang, Xueli Zhang, Caixia Dang, Feng Liu, Xin Zhang, Junzhu Bai, Shumeng You, Hui Chen, Wenyi Zhang, Yuanyong Xu

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Backgrounds: Most significant findings from the Global Tuberculosis (TB) Report 2023 indicate that India, Indonesia, China, the Philippines, Pakistan, Nigeria, Bangladesh, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) collectively contribute to approximately two-thirds of global TB cases. This study aims to provide crucial data-driven insights and references to improve TB control measures through a comprehensive analysis of these eight high-burden countries.

Methods: The eight high-burden TB countries analyzed in this study include India, Indonesia, China, the Philippines, Pakistan, Nigeria, Bangladesh, and the DRC. Age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR) of TB were derived from the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2021 data. Temporal trends were analyzed using Joinpoint regression. An age-period-cohort model was applied to examine the risk ratios (RR) of TB across diverse age groups, periods, and birth cohorts. A Bayesian age-period-cohort framework was employed to predict the ASIR of TB by 2030.

Results: The study found that the Philippines (average annual percentage change = 3.1%, P < 0.001) exhibited an upward trend from 1990 to 2021. In India, the Philippines, Pakistan, and Bangladesh, the RR of TB incidence exceeded 1 after individuals reached 25 years old. Notably, the RR has shown a consistent upward trend since 2001, peaking during the period of 2017-2021 with an estimated RR of 1.5 (P < 0.001) in the Philippines. Similarly, the highest RR was observed during the period of 2017-2021 reaching 1.1 (P < 0.001) in the DRC. In the Philippines, the markedly increasing RR values for TB have been observed among individuals born after 1997-2001. Projections suggest that the ASIR of TB is expected to follow a continued upward trajectory, with an estimated rate of 392.9 per 100,000 by 2030 in the Philippines; India and Indonesia are projected to achieve less than 20.0% of the target set by the World Health Organization (WHO).

Conclusions: Among the eight high-burden countries, the Philippines, India and Indonesia are diverging from the goals set by the WHO, and the risk of TB in the Philippines and the DRC shows a trend toward affecting younger populations, which suggests that the management strategies for TB patients need to be further strengthened.

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根据《2021 年全球疾病负担研究》数据，进一步分析八个高负担国家的结核病情况。

背景：2023 年全球结核病（TB）报告》中最重要的研究结果表明，印度、印度尼西亚、中国、菲律宾、巴基斯坦、尼日利亚、孟加拉国和刚果民主共和国（DRC）合计约占全球结核病病例的三分之二。本研究旨在通过对这八个结核病高负担国家的全面分析，为改进结核病控制措施提供重要的数据驱动见解和参考：本研究分析的八个结核病高负担国家包括印度、印度尼西亚、中国、菲律宾、巴基斯坦、尼日利亚、孟加拉国和刚果民主共和国。结核病的年龄标准化发病率（ASIR）来自《2021 年全球疾病负担研究》的数据。采用 Joinpoint 回归分析了时间趋势。采用年龄-时期-队列模型来研究不同年龄组、时期和出生队列的结核病风险比（RR）。采用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列框架预测了到 2030 年结核病的 ASIR：研究发现，菲律宾（年均百分比变化 = 3.1%，P在八个结核病高负担国家中，菲律宾、印度和印度尼西亚与世界卫生组织设定的目标存在偏差，菲律宾和刚果民主共和国的结核病风险呈现出影响年轻群体的趋势，这表明需要进一步加强结核病患者的管理策略。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Infectious Diseases of Poverty INFECTIOUS DISEASES-

自引率

1.20%

发文量

368

期刊介绍： Infectious Diseases of Poverty is an open access, peer-reviewed journal that focuses on addressing essential public health questions related to infectious diseases of poverty. The journal covers a wide range of topics including the biology of pathogens and vectors, diagnosis and detection, treatment and case management, epidemiology and modeling, zoonotic hosts and animal reservoirs, control strategies and implementation, new technologies and application. It also considers the transdisciplinary or multisectoral effects on health systems, ecohealth, environmental management, and innovative technology. The journal aims to identify and assess research and information gaps that hinder progress towards new interventions for public health problems in the developing world. Additionally, it provides a platform for discussing these issues to advance research and evidence building for improved public health interventions in poor settings.