Effects of hydrological variability on the sustainable use of water in a regional economy. An application to Tuscany

IF 5.4 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Gino Sturla, Bendetto Rocchi
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Existing input-output (IO) models have mainly focused on water demand. Some studies have incorporated water supply (availability), but do not take into account its natural variability, an essential element when performing a water stress analysis. The present study integrates the hydrological variability of water availability into a hydroeconomic IO model, considering its exogenous effects on water supply and its exogenous effects on water demand. Two endogenous effects are considered: i) changes in blue water requirements in the agricultural industry due to variations in precipitation and evapotranspiration, and ii) changes in grey water requirements in all discharging industries due to variations in runoff and groundwater recharge. By means of a T-years hydrological series and Monte Carlo simulations, the model allows estimating T values of the Extended Water Exploitation Index (EWEI), obtaining its empirical probability distribution and confronting it with scarcity thresholds. Additionally, the model includes a methodology to incorporate intra-annual variation, obtaining the critical month EWEI and defining a more transparent and endogenous scarcity threshold. Empirically tested for the Italian region of Tuscany considering a multivariate hydrological model for the generation of a 100-year hydrological series, our results allow a more in-depth analysis of water scarcity in the region.
水文变异对地区经济中水的可持续利用的影响。在托斯卡纳的应用
现有的投入产出(IO)模型主要侧重于水需求。一些研究纳入了供水(可用水量),但没有考虑其自然变化,而这是进行水资源压力分析时的一个基本要素。本研究将可用水量的水文变化纳入了水文经济 IO 模型,考虑了其对供水的外生影响和对需水的外生影响。考虑了两种内生效应:i) 由于降水量和蒸散量的变化导致的农业蓝水需求量的变化;ii) 由于径流和地下水补给量的变化导致的所有排水行业灰水需求量的变化。通过 T 年水文序列和蒙特卡罗模拟,该模型可以估算扩展水资源利用指数(EWEI)的 T 值,获得其经验概率分布,并将其与缺水阈值进行比较。此外,该模型还包括一种纳入年内变化的方法,可获得临界月 EWEI,并定义一个更透明的内生稀缺阈值。我们在意大利托斯卡纳地区进行了经验测试,采用多元水文模型生成了 100 年水文序列,我们的结果有助于对该地区的缺水情况进行更深入的分析。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
Environmental and Sustainability Indicators
Environmental and Sustainability Indicators Environmental Science-Environmental Science (miscellaneous)
CiteScore
7.80
自引率
2.30%
发文量
49
审稿时长
57 days
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