MR radiomics unveils neoadjuvant chemo-responsiveness with insights into selective treatment de-intensification in HPV-positive oropharyngeal carcinoma

Abstract

Background

Accurate prediction of neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) response allows for NAC-guided personalized treatment de-intensification in HPV-positive oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC). In this study, we aimed to apply baseline MR radiomic features to predict NAC response to help select NAC-guided de-intensification candidates, and to explore biological underpinnings of response-oriented radiomics.

Methods

Pre-treatment MR images and clinical data of 131 patients with HPV-positive OPSCC were retrieved from Fudan University Shanghai Cancer Center. Patients were divided into training cohort (n = 47), validation cohort 1 (n = 49) from NAC response-adapted de-intensification trial (IChoice-01, NCT04012502) and real-world validation cohort 2 (n = 35). NAC prediction model using linear support vector machine (SVM) was built and validated. Subsequent nomograms combined radiomics and clinical characteristics were established to predict survival outcomes. RNA-seq and proteomic data were compared to interpret the molecular features underlying radiomic signatures with differential NAC response.

Findings

For NAC response prediction, the fusion model with both oropharyngeal and nodal signatures achieved encouraging performance to predict good responders in the training cohort (AUC 0·89, 95% CI, 0·79-0·95) and validation cohort 1 (AUC 0·71, 95% CI, 0·59-0·83). For prognosis prediction, radiomics-based nomograms exhibited satisfactory discriminative ability between low-risk and high-risk patients (PFS, C-index 0·85, 0·76 and 0·83; OS, C-index 0·79, 0·76 and 0·87, respectively) in three cohorts. Expression analysis unveiled NAC poor responders had predominantly enhanced keratinization while good responders were featured by upregulated immune response and oxidative stress.

Interpretation

The MR-based radiomic models and prognostic models efficiently discriminate among patients with different NAC response and survival risk, which help candidate selection in HPV-positive OPSCC with regard to personalized treatment de-intensification.