On the calibration and improvement of human mobility models in intercity transportation system

Abstract

As one of the research highlights of physics-level modelling, human mobility has generated numerous universal laws over the past decades. However, the majority of research has concentrated on the intracity networks, leaving the intercity mobility systems with insufficient attention despite its increasingly crucial role in the development of urban agglomerations. Related research gaps further extend to the limited understanding of spatiotemporal heterogeneity in intercity human mobility. To bridge these gaps, our study systematically validated and improved the modelling framework of intercity mobility flows utilizing real-world data sources. Specifically, building upon the nationwide Location-based Services (LBS) datasets in China, the applicability of classic human mobility models, including gravity model and intervening opportunities-class models, was extensively explored in the intercity domain by developing fitting models that incorporated multi-class urban attributes. Then, we contributed to proposing improved models that consider the diverse attraction effect of the origin and potential destinations. Moreover, our research scope was expanded to incorporate spatiotemporal heterogeneity through model comparisons among various city sets during both regular period and holiday. The findings suggested that our improved models effectively enhance the modelling accuracy while strengthening the explanatory power. They especially demonstrate a balanced performance even when handling datasets with spatiotemporal heterogeneity. Consequently, this study provides valuable insights into understanding intercity human mobility from the intrinsic mechanism of opportunity attraction. Our models hold practical significance in accurately modelling intercity mobility flows utilizing observable urban attributes and spatial layouts, further providing effective tools for preemptive traffic management.