Building electricity load forecasting based on spatiotemporal correlation and electricity consumption behavior information

Abstract

Accurate prediction of building electricity load is essential for grid management and building optimization operations. This paper proposes a novel approach based on spatiotemporal correlations and electricity consumption behavior information. The K-Medoids algorithm and the Derivative Dynamic Time Warping (DDTW) distance are employed to explore the correlation between electricity consumption behaviors among different partitions and floors. Different partitions and floors are clustered and grouped, followed by modifying the adjacency matrix with electricity consumption behaviors. The hybrid model and K-Medoids-LSTM model are proposed separately for clusterable nodes and non-clustered nodes. For clusterable nodes, spatial-temporal features are extracted, trained, and predicted with the hybrid model based on graph neural networks (GNNs) and LSTM models. A K-Medoids-LSTM model based on the K-Medoids algorithm is proposed to predict the electricity load of the non-clustered nodes. To explore the model's practicality, we predicted the building electrical load under different dataset sizes. The model achieves an R² above 0.89, and the MAE, MSE, and RMSE of the GCN-LSTM and GAT-LSTM models all remain below 0.1, indicating strong predictive capabilities. The results demonstrate that, without relying on other external features, the proposed method can accurately predict the building electricity load for different partitions and floors simultaneously.