Strategic analysis of metal dependency in the transition to low-carbon energy: A critical examination of nickel, cobalt, lithium, graphite, and copper scarcity using IEA future scenarios

IF 6.9 2区 经济学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES
Sa'd Shannak, Logan Cochrane, Daria Bobarykina
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

The 2023 edition of the IPCC document provides a thorough examination of the complex relationship between global energy infrastructure and essential mineral resources. It is crucial to adopt a comprehensive and proactive stance to understand and address the growing environmental challenges associated with energy production and consumption. This addresses the supply and demand scenarios of critical minerals, specifically nickel, cobalt, lithium, graphite, and copper, and examines their roles across diverse applications beyond clean energy technologies. Applying scenarios from the International Energy Agency (IEA) established in 2023, we conducted a comparative analysis to determine whether future use could impact their availability, ensuring that there is an adequate supply for all applications, not just clean technologies, in the years to come. We applied a holistic strategy that integrates technological innovation with policy ingenuity to guide society towards a sustainable reduction in its carbon footprint. Our objectives include: (1) to evaluate the potential effects of the widespread adoption of various technologies on future demand for these critical minerals, utilizing the IEA's 2023 scenarios; (2) Investigating Scarcity Risks and Demand Growth Dynamics; and (3) pinpointing specific minerals that require immediate and strategic attention to prevent potential shortages. Our findings show that demand scenarios differ by minerals and metals, identifying each of the risks and policies to address them. By contributing to the IPCC's ongoing efforts to combat climate change, this study underscores the vital importance of making informed decisions, fostering technological innovations, and implementing robust policies to successfully navigate the transition to a sustainable, low-carbon society.
对向低碳能源过渡过程中金属依赖性的战略分析:利用国际能源机构的未来情景对镍、钴、锂、石墨和铜的稀缺性进行批判性研究
政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)2023 年版文件对全球能源基础设施与基本矿产资源之间的复杂关系进行了深入研究。采取全面、积极的立场来理解和应对与能源生产和消费相关的日益严峻的环境挑战至关重要。本报告探讨了关键矿产(特别是镍、钴、锂、石墨和铜)的供需情况,并研究了它们在清洁能源技术以外的各种应用中的作用。应用国际能源机构(IEA)设定的 2023 年情景,我们进行了比较分析,以确定未来的使用是否会影响它们的可用性,从而确保在未来数年内,所有应用领域都有充足的供应,而不仅仅是清洁技术。我们采用了一项综合战略,将技术创新与政策智慧相结合,引导社会可持续地减少碳足迹。我们的目标包括(1)利用国际能源署的 2023 年情景预测,评估各种技术的广泛应用对这些关键矿物未来需求的潜在影响;(2)调查稀缺风险和需求增长动态;(3)指出需要立即给予战略关注的特定矿物,以防止潜在的短缺。我们的研究结果表明,不同矿产和金属的需求情景各不相同,并确定了每种风险和应对政策。本研究为政府间气候变化专门委员会应对气候变化的持续努力做出了贡献,强调了做出明智决策、促进技术创新和实施强有力的政策对于成功过渡到可持续的低碳社会至关重要。
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来源期刊
Energy Research & Social Science
Energy Research & Social Science ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES-
CiteScore
14.00
自引率
16.40%
发文量
441
审稿时长
55 days
期刊介绍: Energy Research & Social Science (ERSS) is a peer-reviewed international journal that publishes original research and review articles examining the relationship between energy systems and society. ERSS covers a range of topics revolving around the intersection of energy technologies, fuels, and resources on one side and social processes and influences - including communities of energy users, people affected by energy production, social institutions, customs, traditions, behaviors, and policies - on the other. Put another way, ERSS investigates the social system surrounding energy technology and hardware. ERSS is relevant for energy practitioners, researchers interested in the social aspects of energy production or use, and policymakers. Energy Research & Social Science (ERSS) provides an interdisciplinary forum to discuss how social and technical issues related to energy production and consumption interact. Energy production, distribution, and consumption all have both technical and human components, and the latter involves the human causes and consequences of energy-related activities and processes as well as social structures that shape how people interact with energy systems. Energy analysis, therefore, needs to look beyond the dimensions of technology and economics to include these social and human elements.
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