A large-scale in silico replication of ecological and evolutionary studies

Abstract

Despite the growing concerns about the replicability of ecological and evolutionary studies, no results exist from a field-wide replication project. We conduct a large-scale in silico replication project, leveraging cutting-edge statistical methodologies. Replicability is 30%–40% for studies with marginal statistical significance in the absence of selective reporting, whereas the replicability of studies presenting ‘strong’ evidence against the null hypothesis H0 is >70%. The former requires a sevenfold larger sample size to reach the latter’s replicability. We call for a change in planning, conducting and publishing research towards a transparent, credible and replicable ecology and evolution. Large-scale, direct replications of ecological and evolutionary studies are difficult to conduct. This paper applies statistical methods to meta-analyses of ecological and evolutionary studies to estimate replicability.