Tax Policy Expectations and Investment

IF 4.9 2区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Accounting Research Pub Date : 2024-09-25 DOI:10.1111/1475-679x.12577

John Gallemore, Stephan Hollander, Martin Jacob, Xiang Zheng

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Abstract

This paper examines how firms’ tax policy expectations (TPE) evolve around and relate to their investment responses to changes in tax policy. Using a text-based approach to measuring TPE, we find that two recent tax policy–changing events—namely, the 2016 U.S. presidential election and the enactment of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA)—spawned considerable between- and within-firm variation in TPE, with aggregate time-series patterns in TPE occasionally challenging prevailing assumptions in previous research. Further, we observe that event-induced TPE relate to investment both before and in response to the TCJA's passage in 2017, with offsetting associations between its first and second moments, and that these TPE moderate the TCJA's intended investment-stimulating effect. Furthermore, we document a difference between domestic and multinational firms in their TPE-investment response, with the former (latter) more likely to adjust the level (shift the country location) of their investment. Overall, our findings support the idea that TPE can impact investment behavior in the face of a tax policy change and suggest that our methodology can be used by future research to incorporate TPE into analyses of tax policy effects.

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税收政策预期与投资

本文研究了企业的税收政策预期（TPE）如何围绕税收政策的变化而变化，以及与企业对税收政策变化的投资反应之间的关系。利用基于文本的方法来衡量 TPE，我们发现最近两个改变税收政策的事件--即 2016 年美国总统大选和《减税与就业法案》（TCJA）的颁布--在 TPE 方面产生了相当大的企业间和企业内差异，TPE 的总体时间序列模式偶尔会挑战以往研究中的普遍假设。此外，我们观察到，在 2017 年 TCJA 法案通过之前和通过之后，由事件引发的 TPE 与投资相关，在其第一和第二时刻之间存在相互抵消的关联，这些 TPE 缓和了 TCJA 预期的投资刺激效应。此外，我们还记录了国内企业和跨国企业在TPE-投资反应方面的差异，前者（后者）更有可能调整投资水平（转移国家位置）。总之，我们的研究结果支持这样一种观点，即面对税收政策变化，TPE 会影响投资行为，并表明我们的方法可用于未来的研究，将 TPE 纳入税收政策效应分析中。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of Accounting Research BUSINESS, FINANCE-

CiteScore

7.80

自引率

6.80%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Journal of Accounting Research is a general-interest accounting journal. It publishes original research in all areas of accounting and related fields that utilizes tools from basic disciplines such as economics, statistics, psychology, and sociology. This research typically uses analytical, empirical archival, experimental, and field study methods and addresses economic questions, external and internal, in accounting, auditing, disclosure, financial reporting, taxation, and information as well as related fields such as corporate finance, investments, capital markets, law, contracting, and information economics.