Where are the guns?

IF 3.3 1区社会学 Q1 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY

Journal of Criminal Justice Pub Date : 2024-09-24 DOI:10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2024.102289

David B. Johnson , Joshua J. Robinson , Daniel C. Semenza , Alexi Thompson

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

We test the effectiveness of several common gun prevalence proxy variables against what are arguably the best measures of gun prevalence: firearm sales and concealed carry permits. With a comprehensive count of gun sales and concealed carry permits (by county and year) in the states of Pennsylvania and Massachusetts, we make two main observations: First, gun sales/concealed carry permits are positively correlated with federal firearm licenses (gun dealers) per mile. Second, gun sales/concealed carry permits are not significantly positively correlated with federal firearm licenses per capita or the proportion of gun suicides to total suicides. We then discuss why this occurs and the limitations of using legal gun sales as a gun prevalence measure. Last, we show how the competing measures differ in terms of their associations with gun homicide. We find our preferred measure to have a strong positive association with gun homicides while many others do not. Consequently, we advise researchers to use gun dealers as a measure of gun prevalence and specifically in a way that considers markets bleeding over arbitrary lines (e.g., county, city, or neighborhood). This will especially be the case if one is interested in small geographic areas.

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枪在哪里？

我们测试了几种常见的枪支流行替代变量对枪支流行的有效性，这些变量可以说是枪支流行的最佳衡量标准：枪支销售和隐蔽持枪许可证。通过对宾夕法尼亚州和马萨诸塞州的枪支销售和隐蔽持枪许可证（按县和年份）进行全面统计，我们得出了两个主要观察结果：首先，枪支销售/隐蔽持枪许可与每英里的联邦枪支执照（枪支经销商）呈正相关。其次，枪支销售/隐蔽携带许可证与人均联邦枪支执照或枪支自杀占自杀总数的比例没有明显的正相关关系。然后，我们讨论了出现这种情况的原因，以及使用合法枪支销售作为枪支流行率衡量标准的局限性。最后，我们展示了这些相互竞争的衡量标准与枪支凶杀案的关联有何不同。我们发现，我们首选的衡量标准与枪支凶杀案有很强的正相关性，而许多其他衡量标准则没有。因此，我们建议研究人员使用枪支经销商作为衡量枪支流行程度的标准，特别是要考虑到市场的任意界限（如县、市或社区）。如果研究人员对较小的地理区域感兴趣，情况尤其如此。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of Criminal Justice CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY-

CiteScore

6.90

自引率

9.10%

发文量

审稿时长

23 days

期刊介绍： The Journal of Criminal Justice is an international journal intended to fill the present need for the dissemination of new information, ideas and methods, to both practitioners and academicians in the criminal justice area. The Journal is concerned with all aspects of the criminal justice system in terms of their relationships to each other. Although materials are presented relating to crime and the individual elements of the criminal justice system, the emphasis of the Journal is to tie together the functioning of these elements and to illustrate the effects of their interactions. Articles that reflect the application of new disciplines or analytical methodologies to the problems of criminal justice are of special interest. Since the purpose of the Journal is to provide a forum for the dissemination of new ideas, new information, and the application of new methods to the problems and functions of the criminal justice system, the Journal emphasizes innovation and creative thought of the highest quality.