Vaccination strategies for different contact patterns: weighing epidemiological against economic outcomes.

IF 16.4 1区化学 Q1 CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Accounts of Chemical Research Pub Date : 2024-09-24 DOI:10.1007/s10754-024-09384-1

Rikard Forslid, Mathias Herzing

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to shed light on the economic and epidemiological trade-offs that emerge when choosing between different vaccination strategies. For that purpose we employ a setting with three age groups that differ with respect to their fatality rates. The model also accounts for heterogeneity in the transmission rates between and within these age groups. We compare the results for two different contact patterns, in terms of the total number of deceased, the total number of infected, the peak infection rate and the economic gains from different vaccination strategies. We find that fatalities are minimized by first vaccinating the elderly, except when vaccination is slow and the general transmission rate is relatively low. In this case deaths are minimized by first vaccinating the group that is mainly responsible for spreading of the virus. With regard to the other outcome variables it is best to vaccinate the group that drives the pandemic first. A trade-off may therefore emerge between reducing fatalities on the one hand and lowering the number of infected as well as maximizing the economic gains from vaccinations on the other hand.

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针对不同接触模式的疫苗接种策略：权衡流行病学和经济结果。

本文旨在阐明在选择不同疫苗接种策略时出现的经济和流行病学权衡问题。为此，我们采用了三个年龄组的模型，这三个年龄组的死亡率各不相同。该模型还考虑了这些年龄组之间和内部传播率的异质性。我们比较了两种不同接触模式下的结果，包括死亡总人数、感染总人数、峰值感染率以及不同疫苗接种策略带来的经济收益。我们发现，首先为老年人接种疫苗可将死亡人数降至最低，除非疫苗接种速度较慢且总体传播率相对较低。在这种情况下，首先为主要负责传播病毒的人群接种疫苗可将死亡人数降至最低。就其他结果变量而言，最好是首先为造成大流行的群体接种疫苗。因此，一方面要减少死亡人数，另一方面要降低感染人数，还要最大限度地提高疫苗接种的经济收益，这两者之间可能会出现权衡。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Accounts of Chemical Research 化学-化学综合

CiteScore

31.40

自引率

1.10%

发文量

312

审稿时长

2 months

期刊介绍： Accounts of Chemical Research presents short, concise and critical articles offering easy-to-read overviews of basic research and applications in all areas of chemistry and biochemistry. These short reviews focus on research from the author’s own laboratory and are designed to teach the reader about a research project. In addition, Accounts of Chemical Research publishes commentaries that give an informed opinion on a current research problem. Special Issues online are devoted to a single topic of unusual activity and significance. Accounts of Chemical Research replaces the traditional article abstract with an article "Conspectus." These entries synopsize the research affording the reader a closer look at the content and significance of an article. Through this provision of a more detailed description of the article contents, the Conspectus enhances the article's discoverability by search engines and the exposure for the research.