Risk estimation of cardiovascular diseases using the World Health Organization/International Society of Hypertension risk prediction charts in the Azar cohort population: Cross-sectional study.

Abstract

Introduction: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is one of the most important health problems and the leading cause of mortality worldwide. This study aimed to estimate the risk of CVD using the World Health Organization/International Society of Hypertension (WHO/ISH) risk prediction charts.

Methods: The demographic characteristics of all participants of this study aged 40-70 years who did not have a prior coronary event were collected. The 10-year CVD risk was estimated using the laboratory version of the WHO/ISH risk score charts. The risk scores for 11678 participants of the Azar cohort population were calculated. Participants were classified as low risk, moderate risk, or high risk.

Results: According to the WHO/ISH charts, only 0.1 % of the population was classified as high-risk (≥40%), and 96.8% had a 10-year CVD risk of<10%. Also, participants with overweight (P=0.002), obesity, and abdominal obesity had higher CVD risk(P<0.001).

Conclusion: There was a low burden of 10-year CVD risk among the Azar cohort population without prior coronary events. It appears the percentage of people in the high-risk group is underestimated in the WHO/ISH risk prediction charts, leading to delays in receiving appropriate management in the population concerned. Therefore, using other charts alongside the WHO/ISH risk prediction charts is advisable.