A simple and robust approach for adapting design storms to assess climate-induced changes in flash flood hazard

IF 4 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES
Nadav Peleg , Daniel B. Wright , Hayley J. Fowler , João P. Leitão , Ashish Sharma , Francesco Marra
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Abstract

Hydrologists and civil engineers often use design storms to assess flash flood hazards in urban, rural, and mountainous catchments. These synthetic storms are not representations of real extreme rainfall events, but rather simplified versions parameterized to mimic extreme precipitation statistics often obtained from intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves. To construct design storms for the future climate, it is thus necessary first to recalculate IDF curves to represent rainfall under warmer conditions. We propose a framework for adjusting IDF curves and design storms to future climate conditions using the TENAX model, a novel statistical approach that can provide future short-duration precipitation return levels based on projected temperature changes. For most applications, information from climate models at the daily scale can be used to construct design storms at the sub-hourly scale without any downscaling or bias adjustment. Our approach is illustrated through a re-parameterization of the Chicago Design Storm (CDS) in the context of climate change. As a case study demonstration, we apply the TENAX model to data from the city of Zurich to calculate changes in the historical IDF curve for durations ranging from 10 min to 3 h. We then construct synthetic 100-year return period design storms based on the CDS for present and future climates and use the CAFlood model to produce flood inundation maps to assess changes in flood hazard. The codes for adapting design storms to climate change are simple to implement, easily applicable by practitioners, and made freely available.

Abstract Image

采用简单稳健的方法调整设计风暴,以评估气候引起的山洪灾害变化
水文学家和土木工程师经常使用设计暴雨来评估城市、农村和山区集水区的山洪灾害。这些合成暴雨并不代表真实的极端降雨事件,而是经过简化的版本,其参数模仿了通常从强度-持续时间-频率(IDF)曲线中获得的极端降水统计数据。因此,要构建适合未来气候的设计暴雨,首先必须重新计算 IDF 曲线,以表示较暖条件下的降雨。我们提出了一个利用 TENAX 模型调整 IDF 曲线和设计暴雨以适应未来气候条件的框架,该模型是一种新颖的统计方法,可根据预测的气温变化提供未来短时降水重现水平。在大多数应用中,日尺度气候模式的信息可用于构建亚小时尺度的设计风暴,而无需任何降尺度或偏差调整。我们的方法通过在气候变化背景下对芝加哥设计风暴(CDS)重新参数化来说明。作为案例研究演示,我们将 TENAX 模型应用于苏黎世市的数据,计算出持续时间从 10 分钟到 3 小时不等的历史 IDF 曲线的变化。然后,我们根据 CDS 为当前和未来气候构建合成的 100 年重现期设计暴雨,并使用 CAFlood 模型生成洪水淹没图,以评估洪水危害的变化。使设计暴雨适应气候变化的代码实施简单,易于从业人员应用,并可免费获取。
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来源期刊
Advances in Water Resources
Advances in Water Resources 环境科学-水资源
CiteScore
9.40
自引率
6.40%
发文量
171
审稿时长
36 days
期刊介绍: Advances in Water Resources provides a forum for the presentation of fundamental scientific advances in the understanding of water resources systems. The scope of Advances in Water Resources includes any combination of theoretical, computational, and experimental approaches used to advance fundamental understanding of surface or subsurface water resources systems or the interaction of these systems with the atmosphere, geosphere, biosphere, and human societies. Manuscripts involving case studies that do not attempt to reach broader conclusions, research on engineering design, applied hydraulics, or water quality and treatment, as well as applications of existing knowledge that do not advance fundamental understanding of hydrological processes, are not appropriate for Advances in Water Resources. Examples of appropriate topical areas that will be considered include the following: • Surface and subsurface hydrology • Hydrometeorology • Environmental fluid dynamics • Ecohydrology and ecohydrodynamics • Multiphase transport phenomena in porous media • Fluid flow and species transport and reaction processes
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