International Linkages of Inflation-Output Dynamics: Fresh GVAR Evidence from Pakistan and Its Trading Partners

IF 0.9 Q3 ECONOMICS
Muhammad Ayyoub
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

The key purpose of this study is to explore the relationship between inflation and output dynamics in a global macroeconomic framework by utilising time-series data from Pakistan and thirty-two trading partners which account for around 95 per cent of foreign trade of Pakistan, over the period 1979Q2–2016Q4. By featuring the GVAR approach, this paper empirically examined the international linkages to account for cross-country inflationary spillovers. The findings show that both foreign and global variables jointly and significantly matter for the inflation-output relationship in developing economies, in general and, in particular, in the economy of Pakistan. The findings from general impulse response functions (GIRF) reveal that shocks to the US real output, oil prices and food prices are transmitted and settled quickly, and put forward a significant impact on real GDP and inflation in Pakistan and its trading partner economies. Inflation in Pakistan is driven more strongly by the global changes in oil and food prices than GDP. For monetary policy formulation, the central bank should take into account developments in inflation-output dynamics of Pakistan's major trading partners.

通货膨胀-产出动态的国际联系:巴基斯坦及其贸易伙伴的最新 GVAR 证据
本研究的主要目的是利用 1979Q2-2016Q4 期间巴基斯坦和约占巴基斯坦对外贸易 95% 的 32 个贸易伙伴的时间序列数据,在全球宏观经济框架下探讨通货膨胀与产出动态之间的关系。通过采用 GVAR 方法,本文对国际联系进行了实证研究,以解释跨国通胀溢出效应。研究结果表明,外国变量和全球变量共同对发展中经济体,特别是巴基斯坦经济的通胀-产出关系产生重大影响。一般脉冲响应函数(GIRF)的研究结果表明,对美国实际产出、石油价格和食品价格的冲击会迅速传播和平息,并对巴基斯坦及其贸易伙伴经济体的实际国内生产总值和通货膨胀产生重大影响。与国内生产总值相比,全球石油和食品价格的变化对巴基斯坦通货膨胀的影响更大。在制定货币政策时,中央银行应考虑到巴基斯坦主要贸易伙伴的通胀-产出动态发展。
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来源期刊
Economic Papers
Economic Papers ECONOMICS-
CiteScore
2.30
自引率
0.00%
发文量
23
期刊介绍: Economic Papers is one of two journals published by the Economics Society of Australia. The journal features a balance of high quality research in applied economics and economic policy analysis which distinguishes it from other Australian journals. The intended audience is the broad range of economists working in business, government and academic communities within Australia and internationally who are interested in economic issues related to Australia and the Asia-Pacific region. Contributions are sought from economists working in these areas and should be written to be accessible to a wide section of our readership. All contributions are refereed.
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